February 5, 2024: Russian Digest

Top stories I'm keeping an eye on!

February 5, 2024

Call to Action for my U.S. subscribers: Please call your Congress representatives and tell them to pass the weapons and aid package to Ukraine and to stop endangering U.S. national security by using domestic weaknesses for political purposes…

Russian forces destroy hotel in Kharkiv Oblast, civilian remains trapped under rubble

Russian forces destroyed a three-story hotel in the Bohodukhiv region of Kharkiv Oblast during the early hours of Feb. 6. Local officials report that one civilian remains trapped under the rubble.

Kharkiv Oblast Governor Oleh Syniehubov announced over Telegram that four people were trapped under the building debris. Three individuals, two women, and one man, have so far been rescued. One more person is still trapped.

The hotel is located in the town of Zolochiv, in the Bohodukhiv region of the Oblast. Zolochiv is about 40 km away from Kharkiv, the region's administrative center.

Earlier this week, Russia launched artillery and mortar attacks on 18 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast.

The Russian military has regularly targeted Kharkiv and settlements in the oblast since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Over the past few weeks, the number of attacks on the city has increased.

Via Kyiv Independent: https://kyivindependent.com/russian-forces-destroy-hotel-in-kharkiv-oblast-civilian-remains-trapped-under-rubble/

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Russian oil getting into UK via refinery loophole, reports claim

Millions of barrels of fuel made from Russian oil are still being imported to the UK despite sanctions imposed over the war in Ukraine, research claims.

A so-called "loophole" means Russian crude is refined in countries such as India and the products sold to the UK.

This is not illegal and does not breach the UK's Russian oil ban, but critics say it undermines sanctions aimed at restricting Russia's war funds.

The UK government denied there had been any imports of Russian oil since 2022.

But a spokesman said internationally recognised "rules of origin" define that crude, once refined in another country, is classed for the purposes of trade as originating from the refining country.

'Refining loophole'

The UK is among many Western countries to ban the import of all oil and oil products that originate in Russia in a bid to hit the amount of cash Moscow can generate from fossil fuels.

But two separate reports, shared exclusively with the BBC, suggest the rules on refining enable products made from Russian crude oil to arrive on UK soil.

The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) said this "refining loophole" meant countries such as India and China, who have not sanctioned the Kremlin, are able to legally import Russian crude and refine it into oil products such as jet fuel and diesel.

They then export those products to the likes of the UK and the EU.

"The issue with this loophole is that it increases the demand for Russian crude and enables higher sales in terms of volume and pushing up their price as well, which increases the funds sent to the Kremlin's war chest," said Isaac Levi, head of CREA's Europe-Russia policy and energy analysis.

Read More at BBC: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-68018660

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Türkiye demands new gas discount from Putin

Turkey is preparing to demand new gas concessions from Vladimir Putin during a visit to Ankara, which will be the Russian president's first trip to a NATO country since the full-scale war in Ukraine began. 

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is expected to hold talks with Putin on February 12, intends to achieve new discounts on Russian gas, TASS reports, citing a Turkish diplomatic source. According to the agency’s interlocutor, Erdogan intends to link the issue of reducing prices from Gazprom with the “gas hub” project in Turkey, with the help of which the Kremlin hopes to find new buyers for the gas monopoly after the loss of the key European market.

“Türkiye has always been a reliable consumer of Russian gas. The republican authorities previously said that they were counting on more reasonable prices for it, including in light of plans to create a gas hub,” a TASS source explained.

Having not joined the sanctions against Russia and becoming a major “transit hub” for Russian imports and cash flows, Turkey already negotiated a large gas discount for itself last year, when the state energy company Botas received the right to defer payments to Gazprom for $4 billion.

Now Erdogan is counting on for more, and he has something to threaten Russia with: since January, Turkish banks began to massively block payments from the Russian Federation, citing the tightening of American sanctions and the threat of losing access to the global dollar system. Even transactions in lira and rubles came under attack, and as a result, the flow of Turkish goods to the Russian market, the volume of which exceeded $10 billion a year, was paralyzed.

Last year, demand for Gazprom gas in Turkey fell to a 4-year low: in January-August only about 10 billion cubic meters were pumped through the Turkish Stream and Blue Stream - half as much as in the same period a year earlier. At the end of 2023, Gazprom’s total exports to non-CIS countries turned out to be the lowest since 1985—only 69 billion cubic meters. Compared to pre-war levels (185 billion cubic meters), it has collapsed by more than three times.

For the year ending June 30, 2023, Gazprom suffered a trillion rubles in net losses, found itself in a cash crunch, and was forced to burn through two-thirds of its cash reserves. At the end of the first half of the year, Gazprom’s production fell  by a quarter compared to pre-war levels - a record in the history of the domestic gas industry.

To patch up Gazprom's balance sheet, authorities are sharply raising gas tariffs in Russia. From July 2024 they will increase by 11.2%, and from July 2025 by another 8.2%. Cumulatively, gas prices for citizens will rise by 20% over two years, and by 34% since the beginning of the war.

By 2025, Gazprom could face another trillion rubles in losses due to decreased revenue, increased tax burden, and the need to pay for the gasification program, said Pavel Zavalny, head of the State Duma Committee on Energy, in November. According to him, there will be “no exports”, but the costs “remain.”

Via Moscow Times: https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2024/02/05/turtsiya-trebuet-otputina-novoi-skidki-nagaz-a120659

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New threat assessment from FE: "Very likely" that Russia will use military means to challenge NATO

Russia is rearming up in the Baltic Sea region and has an intention to challenge NATO countries with military force, warns the Norwegian Defense Intelligence Service.

The threat from Russia is not limited to former Soviet states and countries with inferior military muscle.

In an updated threat assessment, the Defense Intelligence Service (FE) states that Russia will "very likely" also use military force to "challenge NATO countries".

This appears from a parliamentary response from Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen (V), where FE has contributed an updated assessment.

The warning comes at a time when Denmark and several European countries have come to the realization that it is necessary to rearm even faster than had been hoped in order to deter Russia in the long term.

Russia's ability to adapt to a war economy and war production has fallen behind many, and in several European governments, there is now talk of only having a window of a few years to get military production up to speed. 

Earlier this week, Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen made the same gloomy announcement: It is urgent to have the defense upgraded "in light of the security policy situation", and the government will now increase the pace of the plans.

To the edge of war

An important distinction in FE's new threat assessment is that the wording "challenge NATO" does not necessarily mean that Russia will "go to war with NATO".

FE currently finds it "unlikely" that Russia wants to trigger a military conflict with the world's strongest defense alliance. Therefore, there is also no "current" military threat to Denmark.

But still, there are danger signals, and Russia is prepared to go to the brink of war, reads the assessment:

"Russia will very likely continue to be careful to avoid that its military activities will trigger NATO's Article 5. However, it is also very likely that Russia has an intention to use its military means of power to challenge NATO countries under the threshold for Article 5," writes FE.

Via Jyllands Posten: https://jyllands-posten.dk/indland/ECE16816399/ny-trusselsvurdering-fra-fe-meget-sandsynligt-at-rusland-vil-bruge-militaere-midler-til-at-udfordre-nato/

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Budanov: Ukraine sunk Russian missile corvette on Feb. 1 with 6 naval drones

The Russian missile corvette Ukraine reported to have sunk off the coast of occupied Crimea on Feb. 1 was destroyed using six naval drones, Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) chief Kyrylo Budanov said on Feb. 4.

Ukraine's military intelligence reported on Feb. 1 that it had sunk the Ivanovets, a Tarantul-class Russian corvette that formed part of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, after it sustained "direct hits to its hull" and was irreparably damaged.

According to Budanov, the mission was undertaken by one of HUR's special units, Group 13, using Maritime Autonomous Guard Unmanned Robotic Apparatuses (MAGURA) V5 – multi-purpose naval drones that can be used for surveillance, reconnaissance, detecting and eliminating mines, search and rescue missions, and combat.

"As a result of the damage, the ship (to the Ivanovets) rolled astern and sank. According to preliminary data, the search and rescue operation conducted by the enemy was not successful," Budanov told the War Zone media outlet on Feb. 4.

Via Kyiv Independent: https://kyivindependent.com/budanov-says-ukraine-sunk-russian-missile-corvette-on-feb-1-with-6-naval-drones/

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Deep Dive Investigation…

The enemy within: How Russia's GRU agents blend in with human rights activists, journalists, and filmmakers

An investigation by The Insider has revealed the identities of several Kremlin agents living and working under false identities inside Russia itself. All of those identified thus far are members of GRU Unit 29155, the Russian military intelligence group best known for its role in the Novichok nerve agent poisoning of Sergei Skripal and his daughter in Salisbury, England in 2018. Although The Insider previously disclosed that Unit 29155 officers had used their state-sanctioned assumed identities to make multiple other trips abroad, including to place explosives at Bulgarian and Czech military facilities, the activities of their alter egos inside Russia itself had remained a black box — until now. Below, The Insider presents the biographies of three such “domestic illegals.”

Read Full Investigation at The Insider: https://theins.ru/en/politics/268886

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Bulgaria arrests state security officer for spying for Russia

An employee of Bulgaria’s interior ministry was arrested on Monday on suspicion of spying for Russia, the Mediapool news outlet reported.

The employee, an officer with Bulgaria's General Directorate for Combatting Organized Crime, is believed to have leaked classified information to a diplomat with the Russian Embassy in Sofia.

“Unfortunately, it is about an employee of the Ministry of Interior who is being monitored,” said Interior Ministry Secretary General Zhivko Kotsev. “It is about espionage actions, but at this stage I will refrain from more comments."

Read More at Politico: https://www.politico.eu/article/bulgaria-arrest-state-security-officer-spyi-russia/

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Russia, Iran to be excluded from Munich Security Conference

Russia and Iran will once more not be invited to attend the Munich Security Conference, which is to take place in the southern German city from February 16 to 18.

The chair of the conference, Christoph Heusgen, said Moscow's recently stated refusal to negotiate with the current Ukrainian government had led to its exclusion from the guest list. 

"And that is why we have said that we are not inviting the Russian government, but we are inviting Russians from nongovernmental organizations, exiled politicians," he said.

Russia was already excluded last year over its invasion of its neighbor.

Iran is being left out of the meeting amid growing tensions in the Middle East caused by the actions of its proxies.

"In the case of Iran, we are hearing from the German government and also from the Americans that there is no interest in talks. As things stand at the moment, we are only inviting Iranians from nongovernmental organizations," Heusgen said.

Heusgen also said that the far-right German political party Alternative for Germany (AfD), which was excluded last year as well, would not be invited to attend.

At the conference, heads of state, governments and international organizations, ministers, lawmakers, and senior defense figures are to discuss current and future challenges to global security. 

Via DW News: https://p.dw.com/p/4c0rh

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Deep Dive Investigation….

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Tucker Carlson shows up in Moscow

As of Saturday, Russian media reported on Tucker Carlson's visit, which had spanned three days since his arrival in Moscow via Turkey. Speculation surrounds the possibility of him interviewing war criminal Putin, although the Kremlin has not officially confirmed this. Carlson was spotted leaving the Kremlin today.

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