“If Ukraine achieves success and takes territories, their loss will be understandable”
Meduza found out how Russian propaganda will prepare Russians for the Ukrainian counteroffensive
Translation from Meduza:
Meduza has obtained a fresh manual prepared by the presidential administration for Russian propagandists. In it, state and pro-government media, among other things, are told how to cover the impending Ukrainian counteroffensive.
The Kremlin is asking propagandists “not to underestimate the announced counter-offensive of Ukraine with NATO support” and not to say that “Kyiv is allegedly not ready for a “counter-offensive”.” The pro-government media, on the contrary, should focus on the fact that Western countries supply Kyiv with weapons and support Ukraine in every possible way.
Two Meduza sources close to the presidential administration explained that there is a simple explanation for this coverage of the impending counteroffensive:
If the offensive is unsuccessful, it will be possible to say: the army [of Russia] skillfully repelled an attack that was superior in power. The price of this victory will rise greatly.
If Ukraine, with the help of weapons from the United States and Europe, achieves some success and occupies territories, their loss will also be understandable: the entire West has concentrated huge efforts on the front, but its successes - compared to these efforts - are very modest. That is, the Russian army, in general, also coped.
In the same manual, the Kremlin “advises” propagandists “not to pedal the information about the amount of funds” that are sent from the Russian budget to restore infrastructure in the occupied and annexed Ukrainian territories. It is not known for certain how much the Russian Federation will spend on this - probably the amount will exceed one trillion rubles; already in the first quarter of 2023, the budget deficit amounted to 2.4 trillion rubles.
Instead, propagandists will talk about how problems are being “solved” in Russia, such as repairs in schools, kindergartens, and hospitals. Judging by the training manual, the Kremlin is confident that such stories will have "public approval."
“It is clear that there will be problems [with the economy], and it is clear why. Spending on a "special operation" will not go anywhere. First of all, the costs for the same infrastructure will be cut: it will turn out that they are repairing in new regions, but not in old ones. The reaction [of residents of the Russian regions] is understandable: they took it from us. It is better not to show in specific amounts how much was taken. This has already happened with Crimea,” explains one of Meduza’s sources close to the Presidential Administration.
His words are confirmed by the data of an internal Russian poll by the Levada Center in 2017. At that time, a significant proportion of respondents (41%) stated that budgetary investments in Crimea are taken “by reducing spending on education, healthcare, science, indexation of salaries and pensions.” More than half (55%) of those who answered in this way believed that the authorities, by financing Crimea by reducing social spending in Russian regions, are acting incorrectly. Moreover, according to VTsIOM polls in the same year, 84% of Russians were against additional funding for Crimea.
Another "undesirable topic" for propaganda unexpectedly became the rehearsals of the parade on the occasion of May 9th. In several regions of Russia, "for security reasons" have already decided to completely abandon the holiday. In addition, the traditional procession of the Immortal Regiment will not be held in Moscow and other cities. Meduza's interlocutors close to the Kremlin declined to comment on the reason for this decision.
One of the political strategists cooperating with the authorities, in a conversation with Meduza, suggested that it was not only that the authorities were unable to ensure the security of events, but most likely, in 2023, fewer vehicles would participate in the parade than in previous years, and the one that will nevertheless appear on the square will, for the most part, be old: “Modern cars are most likely needed at the front.”
Meduza does not know whether such arguments correspond to reality, but the Kremlin, in its training manual, does “recommend” propagandists “not to exaggerate” the topic of preparations for May 9th.