Russian Digest
Top stories I'm keeping an eye out!
Russian forces withdraw military equipment from depot in northern Crimea
Russian forces have recently emptied a military depot in the north of illegally annexed Crimea, according to Foreign and Defense Policy Research Analyst at the American Enterprise Institute, Brady Africk.
“The removal of Russian military equipment from this depot in occupied Crimea can be seen clearly when comparing high resolution satellite imagery from Feb. 11 to March 16,” Africk wrote on Twitter.
The satellite imagery provided by Maxar Technologies shows that the depot used to store tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery, but was emptied at some point after Feb. 11.
It's unknown where the equipment was taken to.
The depot is near the village of Medvedivka in northern Crimea, near the transportation hub of Dzhankoi.
The high-resolution imagery also shows some of the defensive structures built in the area.
A few days earlier, on April 3, the Washington Post said that the satellite images show a “web of trenches” built by Russia in the Russian-occupied Crimea likely indicate that the Kremlin fears losing the peninsula.
"The Russian military, apparently, understands that Crimea will have to be defended in the near future," Ian Matveev, a Russian military analyst, told the Washington Post.
Crimea was illegally annexed by Russia in 2014, with international community recognizing it as a Ukrainian territory.
President Volodymyr Zelensky has previously pledged that Ukraine will return all occupied territories, including the Crimean peninsula.
https://kyivindependent.com/russian-forces-move-military-equipment-to-north-of-crimea/
A train with Belarusian equipment was transferred to the border with Lithuania - "Belarusian Gayun"
In Belarus, on the night of April 6, a train with equipment, presumably from the 120th Separate Guards Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus (deployed in Uruchcha, Minsk), was transferred to the railway station Gudogai, which is located 9 km from the border with Lithuania. This is reported by "Belarusian Gayun".
According to the publication, at least 20 pieces of equipment were deployed, including 10-15 T-72B / B3 tanks, armored personnel carriers, infantry fighting vehicles, and MT-LB. The formation of the echelon took place on April 5 at the Ozerishche station, from where the echelon departed around 22:00, the publication emphasizes.
The Ministry of Defense of Belarus reported on the evening of April 5 that the servicemen of one of the mechanized battalions of the 120th brigade were preparing to march to the “designated area” to carry out further tasks. Photos of 15 armored personnel carriers and the 3rd MAZ brigade were attached to the post, it was reported that they were marching along the roads, accompanied by traffic police. The final destination was not named, and on one of the trucks there were signs indicating dangerous goods, while the digital designation of the cargo was smeared, “Belarusian Gayun” noted. The truck was probably carrying ammunition.
On April 3, the Belarusian Ministry of Defense announced the start of a check of the combat readiness of one of the formations of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus. Secretary of the Security Council Alexander Volfovich reported that one of the units of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus would be withdrawn to training grounds and various areas of the terrain.
In December, Belarusian Gayun reported that the Russian Federation was moving tanks, trucks, and military personnel from training grounds in Belarus closer to the border with Ukraine. A week before, on behalf of Alexander Lukashenko, an unscheduled check of the combat readiness of the Armed Forces began.
Russian forces retreating? Reports from the front that Russian troops are starting to leave their positions
A source tells Novaya-Europe that the Russian group of forces in Ukraine is beginning to leave their current positions. Very slowly, for now. But we can possibly be seeing signs of Ukraine's long-predicted offensive.
Russians are retreating
According to the reports from the line of engagement, Russian units are now pulling out from the “north salient” near Avdiivka. Fighting is underway for the control of Novoselivka but Ukraine is not trying to assault the village as of now, “they are more signaling their presence”.
“The south salient near the village of Vodyane is still holding up, but [Russians] may retreat from there in the next two days,” the source tells Novaya-Europe. “The Vuhledar positions are abandoned. A ten-kilometer gray zone lies there now. The Russian forces are withdrawing to Volnovakha. They are still holding the line in Marinka but there are not many troops. As for Bakhmut, the Ukrainian army since last night has begun recapturing the central quarters previously captured by the Wagner [Group] fighters. They are moving ahead slowly but steadily. It seems like the Russians are preparing to withdraw from the areas to the north and south of Bakhmut.”
“The Ukrainian forces redeployed fresh assault troops to the Donetsk axis attacks which first carried out successful feeler near Vodyane to push Russian forces out by 2-3 km and then knocked the Russians out from their positions to the northeast of Avdiivka, striking at the base of the Russian salient in Novoselivka,” the Volya Telegram channel describes the events. “According to reports coming from both sides, the Russian troops retreated to Novoselivka, this village can be lost if Ukraine continues to push ahead. This, in turn, can lead to an encirclement or fast withdrawal of Russian forces from their positions near Krasnohorivka. These are the very positions that Russian military bloggers lauded as key, assuring their audiences in the autumn that they are instrumental for Russians to encircle Avdiivka. These settlements have been embroiled in fierce fighting since the beginning of the war. Now, all Russia's local successes are likely to result in a retreat from the positions that were generously watered with blood.”
Read More:
https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2023/04/06/russian-forces-retreating-en
Ukraine War Plans Leak Prompts Pentagon Investigation
Classified documents detailing secret American and NATO plans have appeared on Twitter and Telegram.
Classified war documents detailing secret American and NATO plans for building up the Ukrainian military ahead of a planned offensive against Russia were posted this week on social media channels, senior Biden administration officials said.
The Pentagon is investigating who may have been behind the leak of the documents, which appeared on Twitter and on Telegram, a platform with more than half a billion users that is widely available in Russia.
Military analysts said the documents appear to have been modified in certain parts from their original format, overstating American estimates of Ukrainian war dead and understating estimates of Russian troops killed.
The modifications could point to an effort of disinformation by Moscow, the analysts said. But the disclosures in the original documents, which appear as photographs of charts of anticipated weapons deliveries, troop and battalion strengths, and other plans, represents a significant breach of American intelligence in the effort to aid Ukraine.
Read More:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/06/us/politics/ukraine-war-plan-russia.html
Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Oleksiy Danilov told @RFERL that no more than 5 people on the planet have knowledge of where, when and how the Ukrainian Defense Forces will launch a counteroffensive as the information about the time and place is classified.
https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1643978062743347201?s=20
Twitter thread on a Russian document titled "Regulation on Storm Units Z of the 8th Combined Arms Army." This document outlines the objectives, organization, and logistical requirements of 'Storm Z' units.
https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1643832673872363520?s=20
The warm embrace and the cold shoulder: China mines Europe’s fractures during joint visit
BEIJING — It was a tale of two visits.
French President Emmanuel Macron was given the full red-carpet treatment this week in Beijing, fêted at a state banquet, and greeted by military parades and firing cannons on Tiananmen Square. When Macron’s plane touched down, China’s foreign minister personally welcomed him.
When European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen arrived, she got the ecology minister — at the regular passenger exit.
It was a pattern on display again and again on Wednesday and Thursday, as China tried to play divide and conquer with the two leaders, who had teamed up on the visit to try and present a united European front.
Read More:
British intelligence predicted massive resignations of Russian generals due to the failure of the offensive
The British Ministry of Defense predicted new resignations in the Russian army, as the generals failed to fulfill the tasks designated by the Kremlin and lost a large number of soldiers during the offensive in Ukraine.
The intelligence report says that, apparently, the Ministry of Defense has already fired Colonel General Rustam Muradov from the post of commander of the Eastern Military District (VVO) and removed him from operations in Ukraine. The general's resignation was previously confirmed by sources in The Moscow Times, who attributed it to military failures and inadequate orders that doomed many soldiers to death.
Under the command of Muradov, Russian troops tried to capture Ugledar, but suffered extremely heavy losses, as they fell into a pre-arranged trap. Tanks and infantry fighting vehicles advancing on the city found themselves in minefields and under fire from Ukrainian forces, as a result, panicked crews crushed their own infantry, trying to leave the shelling zone. According to Oryx's calculations, two elite marine brigades, and 103 pieces of equipment, including 36 tanks, were lost in three days. At the same time, the Armed Forces of Ukraine lost only 20 pieces of equipment.
Muradov headed the VVO in October. In the summer of 2022, the Ministry of Defense reported that he was participating in the war, commanding the Vostok group. It is also known that Muradov was among the generals who led the attack on Kyiv after the invasion began. Then his attempt to enter from the northwest also ended in failure.
“At the moment, Muradov is the highest-ranking Russian military man to be fired in 2023, but there are likely to be more as Russia continues to fail to achieve its goals in the Donbas,” the British intelligence report said.
In early April, analysts at the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on the upcoming reshuffles in the high military command of the Russian Federation. It was noted that the results of the winter offensive were a disappointment for the Kremlin since the army was unable to capture the Donetsk and Lugansk regions within the administrative borders before March 31.
The head of the General Staff, the commander of the Russian army in Ukraine, Valery Gerasimov, was also threatened with resignation. He headed the joint grouping of troops on January 11, replacing Sergei Surovikin in this post, but he could not achieve significant results. From January 31 to February 28, the Russian army increased the number of occupied territories by less than 0.04% (234 square kilometers), while losing up to 30 thousand soldiers.
Thank you for the daily synopses, Olga! Any updates on the latest treason prosecution of Kara-Murza?