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Another False Flag Operation??
Real or not, reported Kremlin drone attack unsettles Russia
As Russian officials tell it, two Ukrainian drones flew into the very heart of Moscow under the cover of darkness, reaching the Kremlin before they were shot down at the last minute.
A cloud of questions hangs over the claim.
Why did the Kremlin announcement come about 12 hours after the purported incident? Why did no reports of explosions emerge prior to the announcement on the messaging apps that remain full of chatter despite Russia’s crackdown on media and criticism of the war in Ukraine? Why didn’t videos of the purported attacks appear until after the announcement? Why haven’t the images been verified?
A drone attack on the Kremlin would be the most severe penetration of Russian airspace since German teen Matthias Rust landed his little single-engine plane on the fringes of Red Square in 1987. Announcing the attack — or even faking it — risks Russia undermining its citizens’ trust in its frequent assertions of military superiority.
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State channels did not dare to show the Russians footage of the Kremlin burning after the drone strike
The main state television channels did not show viewers footage of the drone attack on the Kremlin. In the evening newscasts on Channel One, Russia 1, and NTV, the presenters only read out the version of the attack voiced by the presidential press service, the Agency drew attention.
Channel One accompanied the four-minute report about the drone attack with panoramic footage of the Kremlin and Red Square from different angles, as well as expert commentary. In addition, the presenter read out the text of the message of the presidential press service. The evening news broadcast did not include videos circulating on social networks, in which drones attacking the Kremlin explode near the Senate Palace. But the journalist told viewers that with this attack, Kyiv "provokes an escalation" and "confirms its sabotage and terrorist doctrine."
The evening news broadcast on Rossiya 1 also did not show the video of the drone attack on the Kremlin. Instead, like the viewers of Channel One, the audience of Rossiya 1 was shown a panorama of Red Square at different times of the day. In the news story, which took 3.5 minutes of air time, the presenter began with the words: “The night of the third of May. Moscow. Red Square. The very center of the Russian capital and the whole country. Drones appear in the sky and attack the Kremlin.” However, the audience did not see the footage of this event.
The NTV channel also did not show the explosions in the Kremlin. The story of the attack took only about a minute on the evening news broadcast. The moderator read out the release of the presidential press service.
At the same time, state news agencies, unlike the main TV channels, published videos of the attack on the Kremlin. In addition, one of several videos of the drone attack was distributed by the TVC propaganda channel.
Earlier, the press service of the President of the Russian Federation reported that on the night of May 2-3, two drones tried to attack the Kremlin. Russian authorities blamed Ukraine for the attack. The press service said that the actions of the Kyiv regime are regarded as a planned terrorist act and an attempt on the life of President Vladimir Putin.
Kyiv has not confirmed its involvement in the attack on the Kremlin. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukraine is not attacking either Putin or Moscow and is fighting only on its own territory. “We don’t have enough weapons even for this. That is why we do not use it anywhere [else],” the Ukrainian president said.
Military radio communications reveal: Russian naval ships were on blackout operations at Nord Stream
Russian naval vessels capable of conducting underwater operations were in the immediate vicinity of the northern explosion sites in the months and days leading up to the explosions of the Nord Stream gas pipelines.
It reveals intercepted radio communications from the Russian navy, which DR, NRK, SVT, and Yle have gained access to in the work on the documentary and podcast series 'Shadow War'.
The ships stayed in the area around the later explosion sites for several hours and in one case for close to a day.
Altogether, the information provides insight into the movements of at least three Russian naval vessels. One of the ships arrived just five days before the blasts and, according to radio communications, stayed there all night before sailing back toward Russia.
- It is interesting because it points to the fact that operations took place below sea level. There is an assemblage of ships out there which together with the positions indicate that something has been going on on the seabed which may have been connected to the blasts. Without us being able to say that this is the case, says Jens Wenzel Kristoffersen, war captain, and military analyst at the University of Copenhagen.
The Russian naval ships all sailed without switched-on AIS transmitters and were thus so-called "ghost ships."
But radio communications sent from the ships to Russian naval bases reveal how in June and September last year they sailed from their bases at St. Petersburg and in Kaliningrad and out to the area around the later northern blast sites.
The intercepted radio communications make it possible for the first time to concretely show how certain Russian naval vessels have operated close to the northern blast sites on the Nord Stream pipelines.
Supported by satellite imagery
The ships' operational patterns are supported by, among other things, satellite images that the four media have analyzed in collaboration with the Norwegian satellite company KSAT.
- We found satellite images that coincide with the vessels' route, says Tony Bauna, an expert in the analysis of satellite images at KSAT.
The images show, among other things, that one of the ships – the Russian naval ship Sibiryakov – may have operated between a few hundred meters and a few kilometers from one of the later leak sites.
- This is interesting information that paints a convincing picture of covert Russian activity near the gas pipelines in the lead-up to the attacks, says HI Sutton, an independent naval analyst, and expert in Russia's underwater warfare program.
That assessment is shared by Johannes Riber, who is a naval officer and analyst at the Norwegian Defense Academy.
- It must be noted that these are not civilian vessels that are leased by the company behind Nord Stream, which is out to look at the pipes. They are state-owned ships from the Russian Federation that are out to do something, which in any case is not about maintenance work, he says.
'May have been used for a preparatory action'
The Russian vessels have typically three to five times a day sent information on, among other things, their positions, speed, and sailing directions to their naval bases in Russia.
The radio messages may contain less uncertainty and do not contain information about what the ships have done.
The Russian radio communications have been intercepted by a former British naval intelligence officer, who until a few years ago worked with interception aimed at, among other things, the Russian Baltic Fleet.
The former officer takes part in the 'Shadow War' and uses legal methods to continue to gain access to parts of the Russian Baltic Fleet's internal communications.
- The presence of Russian naval vessels with underwater capabilities in the vicinity of the Nord Stream pipelines on three separate occasions in 2022 is highly suspicious, the source writes in a background note on the intercepted communications.
He appears anonymously for his safety, but the four media know his identity.
First vessel sailed from the naval base Baltiysk
Based on the information from the former naval intelligence officer, the media have mapped the sailing routes of each of the three vessels.
The radio communication shows that on 6 June last year, the first of the Russian naval vessels sailed from the naval base Baltiysk in Kaliningrad and out to the area north-east of Bornholm, where the ship arrived on the morning of 7 June.
Here, one of the ship's radio messages places the vessel directly on top of Nord Stream 2, where the pipelines run on the seabed at a depth of approximately 80 meters.
Radio messages sent a few hours later place the ship further north, approximately two kilometers west of Nord Stream 1.
After this, the ship's radio messages indicate that the ship sailed across both Nord Stream 1 and 2, just under four kilometers south of the area where the Danish Maritime Authority's navigational warnings show that three of the total four leaks later occurred.
It has not been possible for the four media to determine which ship was involved. But according to the former British naval intelligence officer, it is a vessel transmitting on military radio frequencies to a control unit at a Russian naval base.
How much do we know about the Russian ships that were close to the Nord Stream? What is most surprising about these Russian ships and their behavior? Johannes Riber, military analyst at the Defense Academy, and senior researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies, DIIS, Flemming Splidsboel Hansen answered questions about the activities of the Russian ships in Danish waters and our vulnerable infrastructure. Read the answers here.
The next ship sailed to the same position
The next Russian naval vessel that sailed out to the later blast sites is the 86-meter-long Russian naval vessel Sibiryakov, which is based in Lomonosov near Saint Petersburg.
It arrived a week later, on June 14 last year.
This vessel sought out the same position close to the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline as the first vessel did, the intercepted radio communications show.
The ship stayed in the area for almost a day, crossed over the pipelines, and operated several times at low speed.
According to KSAT, a radar image taken shortly after seven o'clock Danish time on June 15 shows that the Sibiryakov was not the only ship near the later explosion sites at the time.
Another Sibiryakov-sized "ghost ship" also appears on the radar image. The two ships are respectively a few hundred meters and a few kilometers from the nearest of the later leak sites.
- I found two vessels that do not transmit on AIS. And they don't seem to move, they lie quite still and have no stern wave, says Tony Bauna, who is a specialist in finding "ghost ships" using satellite images, and who has analyzed the images for the Nordic media.
It has not been possible for the four media to verify which of the two ships may be the Sibiryakov, or whether the other ship on the radar image is also a Russian naval ship.
A ship designed for operations below sea level
Experts say that the Sibiryakov is suitable for conducting underwater operations and that it has bow thrusters to hold the ship in exact positions.
- It is a ship with underwater capacity that can send something down to the seabed. It has equipment and a crane to lower something into the water and an operating room. It is able to locate, confirm and map what lies on the seabed, and assesses naval captain and naval analyst at the University of Copenhagen Jens Wenzel Kristoffersen.
While the unidentified Russian naval ship on June 7 and the Sibiryakov on June 14-15 were operating in the area of the later northern blast sites, NATO held the BALTOPS 22 military exercise in the Baltic Sea.
The Nordic media have examined openly available ship and aircraft data and have not found any Nato units that have been close enough to the area in the relevant time periods to be able to physically observe the two ships.
The third ship arrived in the days leading up to the explosions
The third vessel, whose route the four media can now map using intercepted radio communications, did not arrive until several months later.
The vessel is called SB-123 and is a 49-meter-long tug belonging to Russia's Baltic Sea fleet.
SB-123 sailed out to the area between the later northern and southern detonation sites on the evening of September 21 last year – i.e. five days before the explosions.
- It is a vessel that, among other things, is used as a support and rescue vessel for submarine operations. It has a crane with considerable lifting power and can lift things up from the seabed, says Jens Wenzel Kristoffersen.
Ship data shows that SB-123 turned off its location transmitter and thus also became a "ghost ship" when it reached about halfway from the naval base in Kaliningrad to the area around the later explosion sites.
The SB-123 has previously been mentioned by the German media T-Online as a vessel that has invoked suspicion in connection with the Nord Stream sabotage, since, according to German intelligence sources, it was in the area on September 21 and 22 together with up to five other Russian naval vessels.
With the information from the intercepted radio communication, it is now possible for the first time with data to place the ship in the area in the period from approximately 20:00 on 21 September to approximately 14:00 on 22 September.
For a period of 12 hours overnight, SB-123 did not send any radio messages and, according to experts, had the opportunity to operate at the later blast sites before the Danish patrol ship Nymfen appeared in the morning.
- During the night, the ship could potentially have been at the later leak sites northeast of Bornholm and at the southern leak site, says Johannes Riber from the Defense Academy.
In addition to the SB-123, the German media T-Online also mentioned that the Russian naval vessel SS-750, which is equipped with a mini-submarine, should have been in the area.
- The presence of precisely this type of ship out in the area on 21 to 22 September could well indicate that at least something has happened down on the seabed, military analyst Jens Wenzel Kristoffersen assesses.
In April, the Defense Command confirmed to Information that the Danish patrol boat Nymfen had taken 112 photos of Russian vessels on September 22 during a patrol that went out to the area where the later explosions took place.
According to the Defense Command, 26 of the images were of the SS-750.
It has not been possible for DR to obtain information on whether the Danish patrol ship also took pictures of SB-123.
Several theories have been put forward
The sabotage against the Nord Stream pipelines has caused international attention and triggered heated discussions in, among other things, the UN Security Council, where Russia has several times demanded an international investigation into the matter.
A number of theories have been put forward about who was behind the sabotage and how it was carried out.
Already in the days after the sabotage, the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, said in a speech that the "Anglo-Saxons" were behind it.
Later, an article written by the American journalist Seymour Hersh went around the world.
The article was based on an anonymous source and described how the USA in cooperation with Norway should have planned and carried out the sabotage under the cover of the NATO exercise BALTOPS 22.
Several of the media that carried the story have since retracted it, as no documentation was provided for the claim.
In March this year, media in Germany wrote that investigative sources have found indications that a pro-Ukrainian group of six people may have been behind the sabotage.
However, the German government has announced that the clues pointing to Ukraine may turn out to be part of a so-called "false flag" operation to create misdirection.
None of the countries investigating the sabotage have yet presented any conclusions.
Emphasizes the need for an international investigation
The information about the presence of the Russian ships at the Nord Stream pipelines in June and September 2022 has been submitted to Russia via the Russian embassy in Copenhagen.
The embassy has not answered what the purpose of the ships' presence was.
None of the Russian ambassadors in Sweden, Norway, Denmark, or Finland have agreed to be interviewed.
The spokesman for the Russian presidential administration, Dmitry Peskov, has publicly denied that Russia has planned sabotage against energy installations in Europe.
At the same time, he has emphasized the need for a quick and broad, international investigation into the Nord Stream sabotage.
The Norwegian Police Intelligence Service and the Copenhagen Police have no comment on the information about the Russian naval ships at the Nord Stream pipelines.
At the Swedish Public Prosecutor's Office, which leads Sweden's investigation into the sabotage, prosecutor Mats Ljungqvist says that they have a good overview of the shipping traffic in the period in question.
- This also applies to traffic without AIS data. I cannot say more, as the investigation is confidential, he says.
NATO warns Russia could target undersea pipelines and cables
Moscow is ‘actively mapping’ gas pipelines and internet cables, top intelligence official says.
There is a “significant risk” Russian could target critical infrastructure in Europe or North America, including gas pipelines and internet cables, as part of its confrontation with the West over Ukraine, a senior NATO intelligence official warned.
David Cattler, NATO's assistant secretary general for intelligence and security, told reporters Russia was “actively mapping” the infrastructure of Ukraine’s allies both on land and on the seabed.
Moscow's military and civilian intelligence services had “considerable resources” that Vladimir Putin could deploy for surveillance of infrastructure, “including the use of civilian ships and so-called spy ships,” Cattler added.
Read More:
https://www.politico.eu/article/nato-warns-russia-could-target-undersea-pipelines-and-cables/
Russia shuts down gas wells after the collapse of exports to Europe
The Russian gas industry is experiencing a production shock after Gazprom lost the European market, supplies to which have fallen to the lowest level since the last years of the USSR.
According to the results of the first quarter of 2023, production fell by 10% year-on-year, to 180 billion cubic meters, Kommersant writes, citing sources familiar with the statistics. According to them, in March, production also decreased by about 10% and amounted to 61 billion cubic meters.
At the same time, the bulk of the decline fell on Gazprom, which stopped disclosing statistics on production and exports at the beginning of this year. “The export situation [for the company] is catastrophic,” a source close to Gazprom told Reuters earlier.
The fall in exports of the gas monopoly, which led to a reduction in production, was outlined in the spring of last year. Then Russian President Vladimir Putin demanded that gas be paid in rubles and instructed that those who refuse to be cut off from supplies.
After that, Russia imposed sanctions against 31 European companies, including the owner of the Polish section of the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline, EuRoPol GAZ. This made it impossible to supply it. In September, as a result of explosions, three of the four gas pipelines of the Nord Stream system were disabled.
As a result, Russia has only two routes left for deliveries to Europe: the GTS of Ukraine (about 40-42 million cubic meters per day) and one branch of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline, through which gas goes to Hungary and Serbia.
Against this background, the Energy Commission of the State Council predicted a drop in Russian gas exports in 2023 to 50 billion cubic meters against 100 billion in 2022. Thus, the export rate will return to the level of the late 1970s. In 1980, the USSR supplied abroad 54.8 billion cubic meters, and in 1985 - already 69.4 billion cubic meters. In modern history, gas exports have never fallen below 110 billion cubic meters.
Supplies to China will not save Gazprom - 22 billion cubic meters will be exported through the only Power of Siberia gas pipeline in 2023. In turn, Russia will send only 28 billion cubic meters to Europe and Turkey, which is three times lower than last year (85 billion).
The State Council proposes to solve the problem by exporting LNG, expanding the use of gas in transport, as well as gasification of Russia.
Russian forces plant explosives in ZNPP’s power unit 4
The Russian occupiers placed military equipment and explosives in the premises of the turbine section of the power unit No. 4 of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.
Source: State Inspectorate for Nuclear Regulation based on the results of the weekly meeting with IAEA representatives on May 2
Verbatim from the State Atomic Energy Regulatory Commission: "Representatives of the IAEA reported the fact that the Russian occupiers placed military equipment, weapons, and explosives in the premises of the turbine department of the power unit No. 4 of the Zaporizhzhia NPP."
Details: The department emphasized that such actions of the invaders cause significant damage to the nuclear and radiation safety of nuclear installations located on the industrial site of the ZNPP, and endanger both the personnel of the nuclear plant and the residents of nearby settlements
The State Atomic Energy Regulatory Commission emphasized that in the event of an emergency at the ZNPP, the consequences will be felt not only by Ukraine.
The State Inspectorate once again called on the international community to put pressure on the aggressor, in particular, to apply tough sanctions to Russian nuclear industry enterprises and persons affiliated with them.
At the end of July 2022, it was reported that the Russian military placed heavy military equipment with ammunition, as well as weapons and explosives, in the engine room of power unit No. 1 of the ZANP.
And at the beginning of August 2022, information appeared about the placement of military equipment also in the engine room of power unit No. 2 of the ZNPP.
There are also data that the occupier's store equipment, weapons, and explosives in other production premises of the ZNPP, including in repair and mechanical workshops and on the roofs of power units.
Update: 21 killed, 48 injured in Russian attack on Kherson Oblast
The death toll of the Russian May 3 mass shelling across Kherson Oblast and the regional capital reached 21 people as of 9 p.m. local time, according to President Volodymyr Zelensky.
The attack also injured 48 people, Zelesnky said. All of the victims are civilians, according to him.
"A railway station and a crossing, a house, a hardware store, a grocery supermarket, a gas station — what unites these places? The bloody trail that Russia leaves with its shells, killing civilians in Kherson and Kherson Oblast," Zelensky wrote on Telegram.
Earlier in the day, the Prosecutor General's Office said Russian troops shelled civilian infrastructure in Kherson.
Interior Ministry reported that Russian forces shelled a supermarket in the regional capital at around 11 a.m. According to the ministry, the victims include both supermarket employees and customers.
A curfew will be imposed in Kherson from May 5 to 8, Kherson Oblast Governor Oleksandr Prokudin said.
From 8:00 p.m. local time on May 5 to 6:00 a.m. on May 8, residents will be forbidden from going outside.
The city of Kherson and surrounding settlements have been under consistent Russian artillery fire since they were liberated in November, with Russian forces retreating to the east bank of the Dnipro River.
Kherson authorities are preparing to evacuate residents if the region comes under even more intense shelling.
https://kyivindependent.com/update-21-killed-48-injured-in-russian-attack-on-kherson-oblast/
"The situation is wild." Putin changed commanders in Ukraine 17 times since the beginning of the war
The fiasco of the victorious blitzkrieg, which the Kremlin was counting on when launching the invasion of Ukraine, led to chaos in the administrative structure of the Russian army.
Since the beginning of the war, Russian President Vladimir Putin has changed high-ranking military commanders at least 17 times - from the entire group to military districts and the leadership of individual branches of the military, experts at the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have calculated.
The chaotic throwing of Putin, who, having no military experience, began to take a direct part in military planning and fired one after another general who did not bring victory, "split" and "disorganized" the command structures of the army, notes ISW: as a result of its ability to conduct a "holistic" the campaign was undermined.
According to experts, during the 14 months of the war, Putin changed the commander of the Western Military District four times: first, it was Alexander Zhuravlev, in June last year he was replaced by Andrei Sychevoi, and two months later this post was taken by Roman Berdnikov. In October, he was replaced by Sergei Kuzovlev, who also lasted only two months: at the end of December, the position was given to Evgeny Nikiforov.
Putin changed the commander of the Eastern Military District (VVO) three times: in May last year, Alexander Chaiko, who led the unsuccessful attempt to take Kyiv, was dismissed. He was replaced by Gennady Zhidko, who was replaced by Rustam Muradov. The latter was fired in March after a failed offensive against Ugledar, where two elite marine brigades were eliminated in the minefields.
The commanders of the Southern and Central military districts, according to ISW calculations, changed twice. Now the Southern Military District is headed by Sergey Kuzovlev, and the Central Military District is headed by Andrey Mordvichev.
Three times Putin changed the commander of the Airborne Forces, and twice - for the same person. Mikhail Teplinskiy took up this post in June after the resignation of Andrey Serdyukov, then allegedly lost it in January, after which he was reinstated.
Putin changed the commander of the entire grouping in Ukraine at least three times, and it remains unclear who exactly led the invasion in the first weeks, ISW notes. Probably, the Russian president wanted to take credit for "the dramatic victory he was waiting for," experts say.
Since April last year, the Russian group was led by Alexander Dvornikov, two months later he was replaced by Gennady Zhidko, who was fired in October, shortly after the surrender of the Kharkiv region.
Sergey Surovikin, who was appointed to his place, was fired in January, noting massive missile strikes on energy infrastructure. He was replaced by the head of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, who, according to ISW, managed to convince Putin of the ineffectiveness of the Wagner PMC, which came into open conflict with the generals of the Ministry of Defense.
Resignations and appointments in the Russian army take place in secrecy, and this is a deliberate policy, according to ISW. “The situation is wild,” says a source close to the Ministry of Defense of The Moscow Times: the commanders of groups and fronts were better known during the Great Patriotic War than they are now.
“This, among other things, testifies to the style of management, not only in the Russian army but also in other areas,” he says.
EU clamps down on corruption in wake of Qatargate cash-for-influence scandal
The European Union on Wednesday promoted new rules to clamp down on corruption across the bloc in the wake of the alleged cash-for-influence Qatargate scandal in the European Parliament.
The initiative, which will need to be signed off on by all 27 member countries plus the European Parliament, is an attempt to tighten rules in the wake of the scandal involving bags of cash and allegedly corrupt lawmakers, which has rocked the EU’s assembly.
But this proposal is not designed to specifically address corruption in EU institutions.
If approved, it would harmonize rules across EU nations, thus covering these institutions in a broad sense. Yet the specific effort to combat corruption in institutions would be done via an ethics body — a separate undertaking already under criticism that it may go too easy on potential wrongdoers.
Read More:
https://www.politico.eu/article/qatargate-eu-eva-kaili-money-parliament-clampsdown-on-corruption/