Russian Digest
Top stories I'm keeping an eye on!
Kim and Putin meeting shows just how much the leaders need each other
Russian President Vladimir Putin is notorious for making world leaders wait for scheduled meetings. Yet on Wednesday, Putin showed up 30 minutes early to greet North Korea’s Kim Jong Un.
Whether it was intentional or not, Putin’s unusual punctuality highlighted his keen interest in meeting with Kim — one of Putin’s only friends in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The feeling was clearly reciprocated by the days-long train journey taken by his Korean counterpart in his first trip abroad in four years.
The meeting of the two leaders — who have become pariahs in the West — marks just how much they need each other at this time.
For Putin, it is mostly a short-term need for Soviet-era ammunition to prosecute his war in Ukraine; Kim’s needs are more long term, including technical assistance to develop weapons and a space program and boost his economy.
Read More:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/09/14/putin-kim-jong-un-meeting-russia/
Why Ukraine’s Strike On Sevastopol Naval Infrastructure Is A Big Deal
Ukraine’s audacious strike on Sevastopol’s naval infrastructure has apparently severely damaged a landing craft and a submarine. Aside from inflicting significant naval losses, the sidelining of a major naval dry dock facility complicates Russia’s ability to operate on the Black Sea.
In modern warfare, dry docks have always been a high-priority target.
As complex pieces of heavy machinery, necessary for the basic maintenance of any naval force, dry docks—facilities where ships can be floated in and repaired after water is pumped out—are not easy things to fix. America is spending billions to refresh undamaged dry docks. Repairing battle damage will be far more costly.
Russia’s inability to defend these vital pieces of critical military infrastructure is a stunning military failure, suggesting Russia’s air defenses are either inadequate, broken or both.
But the strike also highlights Russia’s desperation. After several strikes across Crimea and Sevastopol, Russia knew the docks were likely targets, but, regardless of the threat, Russia continued to use them to maintain key Black Sea naval units.
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Putin's gas hub project in Turkey is on the verge of failure
Vladimir Putin’s ambitious project to create a “gas hub” in “friendly” Turkey, which would again open the doors to Gazprom to the European and world markets, was on the verge of failure.
Although almost a year has passed since Putin announced the idea of the hub, Russian-Turkish negotiations are stalled and accompanied by disagreements, Reuters reports, citing two sources familiar with the situation.
According to one of them, the subject of disputes was management issues. “They are fighting over who should manage the hub,” the agency’s source explained.
Another Reuters source close to Gazprom confirmed the “problem”: the parties cannot agree on the management of the project.
The gas hub, which, according to the Kremlin, could be powered by supplies from the Turkish Stream and Blue Stream, is desperately needed by Gazprom: the company lost a key European market, and after the explosions at Nord Stream, it lost the opportunity to return on it in the foreseeable future.
Attempts to negotiate an increase in supplies to China ended in vain. During Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow, Putin proposed pumping 100 billion cubic meters into China annually—6 times more than now. But Xi never signed the long-awaited contract for the construction of the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, and soon approved an alternative project for the purchase of Turkmen gas.
At the end of the first half of the year, Gazprom pumped only 12.1 billion cubic meters of gas to Europe - three times less than last year, which became the worst year for the company in its entire modern history.
If current volumes continue, then by the end of the year Europe will receive approximately 24 billion cubic meters of gas from the Russian Federation, compared to 62 billion last year and 170-180 billion in the record years for Gazprom 2017-2019. Gazprom has not sold so little gas to Europe since the second half of the 1970s, as follows from its own statistics. Thus, in 1975, export volumes amounted to 19.3 billion cubic meters per year, and in 1980, after concluding a major contract with Germany, it was already 54.8 billion.
Russia's entire gas strategy "has turned out to be self-destructive and a complete failure," says Bruegel analyst Simon Tagliapietra: "The Kremlin thought that by using gas as a weapon against the EU they would achieve an immediate reduction in support for Ukraine, but that turned out to be completely wrong." The share of Russian gas in the European market has fallen to 10% since the first half of 2021, Bruegel calculated. At the same time, storage facilities remain at record levels, and preparations for winter have been completed months ahead of schedule.
“Russia has lost its status as a major global gas exporter, lost it forever,” says Tagliapietra.
US Targets 150 Entities With New Russia Sanctions
The U.S. on Thursday sanctioned more than 150 businesses and individuals in Russia, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and Georgia to try to crack down on evasion of trade restrictions aimed at blocking funding for Russia’s 19-month war against Ukraine.
The newest sanctions package is one of the biggest imposed by the State Department and the U.S. Treasury. It targets those who are selling Western technology to Moscow to aid its war effort, particularly businesses and people in Turkey, a member of the Western military pact that is allied in support of Ukraine.
The sanctions, which block any assets the businesses and individuals might have in the U.S., are also aimed at hobbling the development of Russia’s energy sector that provides war funding, including Arctic natural gas projects, along with mining and factories producing and repairing Russian weapons.
In addition, the U.S. package targets several Turkish and Russian companies that the State Department says help Moscow source U.S. and European electronic components — such as computer chips and processors — that can be used in civilian and military equipment.
The State Department also is targeting Turkish companies that have provided ship repair services to a company affiliated with Russia's Defense Ministry.
Before the war, James O'Brien of the State Department’s sanctions coordination office said that Russia imported up to 90% of its electronics from countries that are part of the Group of 7 wealthy democracies, but sanctions have dropped that figure closer to 30%.
Read More:
https://www.voanews.com/a/ukraine-downs-russian-drones-in-multiple-regions-/7267903.html
https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1731
“Talk as little as possible about this topic”
The presidential administration asked propagandists not to talk about fake news about a new wave of mobilization (and not even to quote official denials)
Russian pro-government media received an “urgent request” from the Russian Presidential Administration to cover rumors about the second wave of mobilization as little as possible (at the beginning of September, a corresponding fake order from the Ministry of Defense began to spread on social networks and messengers). Two employees of such publications told Meduza about this.
According to them, propagandists were asked not to publish even official refutations of such rumors (if they appear again). An employee of one of the pro-government tabloids explained to Meduza that such comments receive a large number of views and many people learn about fakes from them: “And as we [in Russia] believe, if the authorities refute something, then it will definitely happen.”
Meduza’s interlocutors noted that the AP’s request also concerns statements by the head of the State Duma Defense Committee Andrei Kartapolov (previously it was he who refuted the “order” about a new wave of mobilization - his words were quoted by many pro-government media). This deputy became widely known in September last year when he “refuted” the preparations for mobilization right before it began. In addition, it was Kartapolov last fall, commenting on the change in the draft age, who assured that the army does not need 18-year-old conscripts and will now be recruited for service from the age of 21. As a result, the authorities raised only the upper limit of conscription (up to 30 years) - and left the lower limit the same. According to Meduza’s observations, some of the most popular pro-government publications have already stopped quoting the State Duma deputy.
Instead of news with comments about possible mobilization, the Kremlin suggested that propagandists focus on publications about the recruitment of contract soldiers, which is supposedly going very successfully. At the same time, one of the interlocutors working in pro-government media noted that some such publications may ignore the recommendation of the presidential administration (and continue to gain views) if their leadership has “good personal relations” with the Kremlin curators.
Meduza’s source, close to the Russian presidential administration, in turn, explained this recommendation by saying that the very mention of mobilization “very worries society:” “It’s easier to talk about this topic as little as possible, there are fewer triggers.”
On the eve of the 2024 presidential elections, the Kremlin does not need such “anxiety”: “It affects the mood of people, and for some of them it can develop into protest moods. Such people will vote against [Putin] or will not go to the polls.” This directly contradicts the tasks of the political bloc of the presidential administration, which intends to provide Putin with record results in the 2024 elections (as Meduza has already written , we are talking about more than 80% of the votes with a turnout of more than 70%). At the same time, Meduza’s interlocutors close to the Kremlin made a reservation that they knew nothing about whether there would be a new wave of mobilization in principle.
https://meduza.io/feature/2023/09/14/kak-mozhno-menshe-govorit-ob-etoy-teme
ISW: Commander of elite Russian unit killed
The commander of the Russian 247th Guards Air Assault Regiment, Vasily Popov, was killed during battle in Ukraine, the Institute of the Study of War stated in their daily report on Sept. 14.
Vasily Popov replaced Pyotr Popov as commander of the 247th regiment in August or September, making Vasily the second commander of the 247th regiment to be killed in battle.
According to ISW, units of the 247th regiment operate on the border of the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia region. ISW previously assessed that relatively elite VDV forces are conducting counterattacks in important sectors of the front, and Vasily Popov’s death supports ISW’s assessment that these counterattacks will likely weaken these units.
ISW also reported that Ukrainian forces achieved partial successes near Bakhmut, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Kurdyumivka. Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar announced that the situation in Andriivka is "very complex and changeable."
https://kyivindependent.com/isw-commander-of-eli/
Bulgaria, NATO discuss response to Russian blockade in Black Sea
Bulgaria is holding talks with NATO allies to see whether to deal with Russia’s continued partial blockade of Bulgaria’s Black Sea exclusive economic zone independently or with the help of NATO allies, Defence Minister Todor Tagarev told Euractiv on Wednesday.
Russia continues to declare part of the Bulgarian economic zone in the Black Sea closed to shipping until the end of September because of ongoing military exercises in the area, Tagarev said, adding that these actions are already considered a provocation.
“Bulgaria is discussing a response to these provocations – both independently and with our NATO allies,” Tagarev said on Wednesday.
A week ago, the Bulgarian government allocated nearly €20 million to acquire missiles and torpedoes for the navy. The country is also interested in urgently acquiring RBS-15 missile complexes for the Coast Guard from the Swedish company Saab.
Asked by Euractiv whether Bulgaria had developed scenarios in case of a Russian attack on cargo ships sailing from Ukrainian ports through Bulgarian waters or economic zone in the Black Sea, the Defence Ministry replied: “At the moment, there is no immediate risk or threat of an attack against merchant vessel sailing in the territorial sea of a NATO member state.”
“These waters are under the sovereignty of each coastal state and form part of the state territory. An attack in the territorial sea can be seen as an attack against the Republic of Bulgaria and NATO as a whole,” the ministry added, mentioning that the navies of Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey have increased their vigilance, continuing to carry out tasks with their own forces and means to ensure the safety of merchant ships passing through the Black Sea.
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More suspected Russian drone debris is found in Romania.
The NATO member said it was the third such discovery in less than two weeks.
Romania found more debris suspected to be from a Russian drone on Wednesday, following Russian strikes on Ukrainian Danube ports just across the border. It was the third such discovery on Romanian soil in less than two weeks.
Ukraine’s infrastructure minister, Oleksandr Kubrakov, said that the Izmail and Reni ports, which lie across the Danube, just a few hundred yards from Romanian soil, were struck and damaged, injuring seven civilians. Russia has repeatedly attacked Ukrainian ports along the Danube since the collapse of a grain deal in mid-July that allowed Ukraine to safely ship its grain through the Black Sea.
In a statement, the Romanian Ministry of National Defense reiterated that Russian attacks on Ukraine’s Danube port infrastructure so near Romania would contradict rules of international law.
The Romanian Air Force first identified the fragments as potentially from a drone, and the Romanian authorities then identified the source as a drone similar to those used by the Russian Army. The Ministry of National Defense said that a verification team would continue to analyze the debris.
Read More:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/13/world/europe/russian-drone-romania.html
Cuban diplomat: government will not stop its citizens from fighting for Russia in Ukraine
In an apparent policy reversal, Cuba’s ambassador to Russia said the Cuban government would not stop its citizens from enlisting in the Russian army to fight in Ukraine, despite earlier statements by the island’s authorities reporting the arrest of 17 people involved in recruiting Cubans for the Russian army and assurances that Cuba was firmly against such activities. “We have nothing against Cubans who just want to sign a contract and legally take part in this operation with the Russian army,” the Cuban ambassador to Moscow, Julio Antonio Garmendia Peña, told Russian state news agency Ria on Thursday. “But we oppose illegality and these operations that have nothing to do with the legal area.” Following dramatic testimony in late August by two young Cuban men who said they were scammed into joining the Russian military, the Cuban government said it had “uncovered” and was dismantling a human trafficking ring operating from Russia “in order to incorporate Cuban citizens living there and even some living in Cuba, into the military forces that participate in military operations in Ukraine.”
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Musk’s Denial of Ukraine’s Starlink Request Prompts Senate Probe
The Senate Armed Services Committee is probing national-security issues raised by Elon Musk’s decision not to extend the private Starlink satellite network to aid a Ukrainian attack on Russian warships near the Crimean coast.
Chairman Jack Reed said in a statement Thursday the reports on the use of Starlink exposed “serious national-security liability issues and the committee is engaged on this issue.”
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U.S. vows response after Russia expels diplomats
The U.S. "will respond appropriately" to Moscow's decision to expel two U.S. diplomats from Russia, State Department Spokesperson Matt Miller said in a press briefing on Sept. 14.
"This unprovoked expulsion of our diplomatic personnel is wholly without merit," Miller said.
On Sept. 14, the Russian Foreign Affairs Ministry told U.S. Ambassador Lynne Tracy that two American diplomats, Jeffrey Sillin and David Bernstein, had been declared "persona non grata" and would have to leave the Russian Federation within seven days.
The Russian government accused the diplomats of conducting "illegal activities" and collaborating with Robert Shonov, a Russian citizen who was arrested on espionage charges in May 2023.
"Yet again, Russia has chosen confrontation and escalation over constructive diplomatic engagement," Miller said. "It continues to harass employees of our embassy, just as it continues to intimidate its own citizens."
Miller said the U.S. diplomats were "just doing their jobs" and that neither was guilty of wrongdoing or criminal activity. He also said that Shonov, a former U.S. Consulate employee, had acted "in compliance with Russian law."
Miller declined to give details about the U.S. government's next steps, but said they would respond "appropriately" and "expeditiously" to the expulsion.
He also said that Sillin and Bernstein had not yet left Russia.
https://kyivindependent.com/u-s-vows-response-after-russia-expels-diplomats/
Russia Overcomes Sanctions to Expand Missile Production, Officials Say
Moscow’s missile production now exceeds prewar levels, officials say, leaving Ukraine especially vulnerable this coming winter.
Russia has managed to overcome sanctions and export controls imposed by the West to expand its missile production beyond prewar levels, according to U.S., European and Ukrainian officials, leaving Ukraine especially vulnerable to intensified attacks in the coming months.
In addition to spending more than $40 billion providing weapons for Ukraine, the United States has made curbing Russia’s military supply a key part of its strategy to support Kyiv.
As a result of the sanctions, American officials estimate that Russia was forced to dramatically slow its production of missiles and other weaponry at the start of the war in February 2022 for at least six months. But by the end of 2022, Moscow’s military industrial manufacturing began to pick up speed again, American officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to disclose the sensitive assessment now concede.
Russia subverted American export controls using its intelligence services and ministry of defense to run illicit networks of people who smuggle key components by exporting them to other countries from which they can be shipped to Russia more easily. In less than a year since the war began, Russia rebuilt trade in critical components by routing them through countries like Armenia and Turkey. U.S. and European regulators have been trying to work together to curb the export of chips to Russia, but have struggled to stop the flow to pass through countries with ties to Moscow.
Read More:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/13/us/politics/russia-sanctions-missile-production.html