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Despite Successes at NATO Summit, Divisions Remain
The alliance added Sweden, laid out new ambitions for itself and offered long-term support for Ukraine, promising membership someday. But Kyiv wanted more.
NATO had some significant successes at its summit that ended Wednesday as it worked hard to project unity in support of Ukraine’s bloody defense against Russia’s invasion.
Turkey lifted its objections to Sweden’s membership. The alliance approved new spending goals and its most ambitious military plans for Europe’s defense since the Cold War. There were new commitments for long-term support for Kyiv. And all 31 member states agreed that Ukraine belongs in NATO, a significant shift stemming from its brave, resilient defense of its country and of Western values.
Even so, the summit’s final communiqué, with its ambiguous diplomatic language, does not disguise some serious strains among alliance members in the bitter fight over how to describe Ukraine’s path toward NATO membership. Ukraine was promised an invitation “when allies agree and conditions are met,” leaving both the timing and the conditions safely unsaid.
President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine and his most vocal Central European supporters wanted more, and made it loud and clear.
Read More:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/12/world/europe/nato-summit-ukraine-biden.html
Air attacks on Kyiv kill 1, injure others
Air attacks on Kyiv the night of July 13 left one dead and others hospitalized with shrapnel wounds, the City's Military Administration reported on Telegram.
Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said that a dead body was found during efforts to extinguish a fire at a residential building in the Podilsky district.
Kyiv Military Administration Chief Serhiy Popko said on Telegram that two victims, an 18-year-old girl and a 25-year-old man, were hospitalized in Darnytsia for shrapnel injuries from glass.
Air raid alerts began shortly after midnight, and multiple explosions were recorded throughout the capital. The attacks caused falling debris, fires, and damage to residential buildings.
At 1:39 a.m., reports of possible falling debris came from the Solomyansky district. Two people in Solomyansky received immediate medical attention.
In the Darnytsia district, falling debris destroyed the facade of a multi-storey apartment building.
In the Shevchensky district, falling debris damaged the fifth floor of a residential building.
Emergency services and medical personnel were dispatched to these areas, as well as to the Podilsky and Dniprovsky districts of the city. Information on casualties and damage from the attacks is remains preliminary at this time.
https://kyivindependent.com/attacks-in-kyiv-cause-property-damage-in-multiple-districts/
The commander of the 58th Army of the Russian Federation (fighting on the Zaporizhzhia front) was dismissed
Popov accused the authorities of betraying the army. He did not give the name of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, but said that he was removed by order of the head of the Defense Ministry.
The commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation, Major General Ivan Popov, said that he had been removed from his post. He said this in an appeal to the military, which was distributed by State Duma deputy Andrei Gurulev, who also commanded the 58th Army in the past.
“Honestly, I’m telling you, a difficult situation arose with the senior authorities, which had to either be silent and cowardly and say what they wanted to hear or call a spade a spade,” Popov said in the appeal.
According to him, he "rigidly" outlined all the problematic issues in the Russian army "in combat work, in support." “I drew attention to the most important tragedy of modern warfare - this is the absence of counter-battery combat, the absence of artillery reconnaissance stations, and the mass deaths and injuries of our brothers and you from enemy artillery,” Popov said.
“In this regard, the senior commanders, apparently, felt some kind of danger in me and quickly, in one light day, concocted an order, the Minister of Defense signed the order and got rid of me. As many commanders of divisional regiments said today, the servicemen of the armed forces of Ukraine could not break through our army from the front, our senior commander hit us from the rear, treacherously and vilely decapitating the army at the most difficult and tense moment,” Popov added.
Earlier, the Telegram channel Gray Zone, associated with the PMC Wagner, announced the removal of Popov. According to them, Popov was removed after he made a report to the Chief of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov and, in particular, proposed to rotate the Russian units located on the front line. In response to the report, according to Gray Zone, Gerasimov said that Ivan Popov "is engaged in disinformation and alarmism."
The annexed Berdyansk in the Zaporizhzhia region of Ukraine came under several shellings on July 11. Russian sources reported that during the shelling of Berdyansk with long-range Storm Shadow missiles, Lieutenant General Oleg Tsokov, who commanded the 144th motorized rifle division, was killed. The death of Tsokov was confirmed by State Duma deputy Andrei Gurulev.
Also:
Update on General Surovikin
Surovikin was detained by counterintelligence, he is isolated and does not get in touch for more than two weeks
The media again reports on the arrest of the Deputy Commander of the Joint Group of Russian Forces in Ukraine, Commander-in-Chief of the Aerospace Forces, General Sergei Surovikin. The Nestka publication, citing a source close to law enforcement agencies, writes that the general was detained by counterintelligence, he is being interrogated in connection with the rebellion of Yevgeny Prigozhin and Wagner PMC.
Another source from Layout claims that Surovikin has been isolated and has not been in contact with his relatives for more than two weeks.
“There are many ways to keep a person isolated from society without bringing charges - administrative arrest, initiation of another case (for example, corruption) or simply without legal justification (a conditional basement), lawyer Yevgeny Smirnov explained to the publication. - However, Surovikin is a rather high-ranking figure, such people usually have a special attitude. Such people can be verbally forbidden to leave the house and communicate.
In turn, the head of the State Duma Committee on Defense, Andrei Kartapolov, said that Surovikin "is resting now, unavailable."
The hacker group From Russia with Love published secret data on the security of participants in the NATO summit in Vilnius
The hacker group From Russia with Love has published secret data on how the security of the participants of the NATO summit, held in Vilnius on July 11-12, was ensured.
According to the Lithuanian edition 15min, on July 12, one of the Russian pro-military telegram channels appeared with such information as the number of guards of the leaders of different NATO countries, the routes of movement and means of communication of the summit participants, as well as data on the sniper group that ensured the security of the summit.
A total of 29 files were leaked. Cyber security specialist Lukas Apinis said the data is no longer very relevant as the NATO summit is over. “If this information had appeared earlier, its value would have been much higher,” he added.
The Lithuanian State Security Department told 15min that they were investigating the leak.
The heads of the main manufacturer of equipment for the Russian army were dismissed
Oleg Morozov, the general director of the enterprise that develops small arms and combat equipment for the military TsNIItochmash, will be fired on Friday, July 14, a RIA Novosti source said.
“His entire team — three deputy CEOs, three advisers, and others — have already retired,” he added. In total, Morozov had five deputies: Dmitry Donskoy, Yuri Zernov, Sergey Loginov, Andrey Novoselov, and Viktor Shitov. What these personnel decisions are connected with is not specified.
Morozov headed the Central Research Institute of Precision Engineering in April 2021. Prior to that, he served as director of the testing department of the Design Bureau of Instrument Engineering named after Academician Shipunov, which is part of the High-Precision Complexes holding. All these structures belong to the Rostec State Corporation.
Among other things, TsNIItochmash developed army equipment, including the Ratnik kits. In 2017, the head of the Ministry of Defense, Sergei Shoigu, claimed that they are superior to foreign counterparts in terms of armor protection and are “two or three times” ahead of domestic ones in all respects.
The Ratnik includes a bulletproof helmet, bulletproof and anti-fragmentation body armor, a combat protective kit (BPC), a Sagittarius communication and target designation system, a communicator with a connection to GPS or GLONASS, and a video module for shooting from cover.
Earlier, The Moscow Times calculated that over the past 8 years, only about 300,000 Ratnikovs have been purchased for more than a million Russian army. One set of such equipment costs the Ministry of Defense 200 thousand rubles.
After the announcement of mobilization in Russia, it turned out that 1.5 million sets of military uniforms were missing at the points of reception of personnel. This, in particular, was reported in the State Duma against the backdrop of a shortage of equipment for the reservists called up for the front and cheating in the military, which reached 1000%.
Andrey Kartapolov, the head of the lower house defense committee, argued that the money for uniforms for the military was "allocated in full." The main purchases were made in 2014–2016. During this time, there were four dozen tenders for more than 14 billion rubles. The deputies appealed to the Prosecutor General's Office. As a result, Dmitry Bulgakov, Deputy Minister of Defense for Logistics, was fired due to the scandal with the missing kits. Later he was appointed chief inspector of the military department.
In mid-January of this year, the leadership of the Ministry of Defense held a meeting, as a result of which three generals were fired due to dissatisfaction with the quality of the new uniform, Nestka wrote. The criticism concerned the equipment produced by TsNIItochmash and ZAO Cuirass.
The meeting was attended by Shoigu, as well as the Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov. Military commanders criticized the quality of clothing, cut, and seams. According to them, the uniform did not meet the requirements of thermal insulation, and the military complained about the cold and inconvenience.
Turkey eyes recalibration with the West as Russia’s isolation grows
Hope for Sweden’s imminent entry into the NATO security alliance began to fade on Monday when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan introduced a last-minute hurdle by linking his approval of the Nordic country’s bid to Turkey’s long-sought accession to the European Union.
But just hours later, he made a surprise U-turn by dropping his opposition, paving the way for NATO to expand its fortification against a belligerent Russia as Moscow fights a war in Ukraine.
The move, which won praise from the West and rebuke from Moscow, demonstrated how the Ukraine war has been a defining moment for Turkey’s role on the international stage. Erdogan has remained relevant by keeping Russia close and stressing his commitment to NATO, while extracting maximum concessions from each side. His delicate balancing act has given Turkey a unique position of being the only NATO nation whose ear Russia has.
But analysts say that in his third decade in power and final term in office, the Turkish strongman may be on a conciliatory path with the West.
Read More:
https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/12/middleeast/turkey-west-nato-recalibrate-mime-intl/index.html
"Money is required." The government is preparing a "mobilization" of the budget after the collapse of commodity revenues
The Russian authorities are preparing to "mobilize" the federal budget, which in the coming years will have to spend record amounts on the army and security forces in an environment where oil and gas revenues are rapidly falling and reserves are gradually dwindling.
There are no serious risks in the current year's budget - money will be found for all planned tasks, but the budget for the next three years will require additional funds, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said on Wednesday.
According to him, this issue is currently being discussed by the government. “Yes, money will be needed,” the minister said. “We are working out, together with our colleagues, the tasks of mobilizing resources” (quotes from Interfax).
According to the results of the first half of the year, oil and gas revenues of the federal budget collapsed by 47%, to 3.4 trillion rubles, while total tax revenues sank by 12%, to 12.4 trillion rubles. At the same time, expenditures increased by 20% and amounted to almost 15 trillion rubles due to appropriations for secret items that soared 10 times (3.5 trillion rubles at the end of May). As a result, a hole has formed in the budget for 2.6 trillion rubles, which by the end of the year, according to the spending plan of the Treasury of the Russian Federation, may increase to 3.8 trillion.
In reality, the budget deficit may exceed 5 trillion rubles, Deutsche Bank analysts predicted earlier. According to them, due to the European embargo, discounts on oil, and reduction in gas supplies to Europe, the Russian economy is losing $500 million a day. If the cost of the war in Ukraine remains the same, and sanctions against the Russian oil and gas industry continue, the budget may not have the resources for the traditional distribution of money to the population before the 2024 presidential election, warned the DB.
In the 2024 budget, the authorities initially included a reduction in the deficit to 2.2 trillion rubles, and in 2025 - to 1.2 trillion. However, for this it was supposed to reduce spending on the army - from 5 trillion rubles this year to 4.6 trillion next year and 4.2 trillion in a year. But as the war with Ukraine drags on and the prospect of victory grows ever dim, officials are shifting their rhetoric. According to Vedomosti, the authorities are considering sequestering the budget with a 10% reduction in all unprotected items. Siluanov at the end of June de facto confirmed this prospect, saying that we are talking about "prioritization" of expenses. “Money is not used somewhere, contracts are not signed. Therefore, they must be redistributed to new ones,” he explained.
In order to make ends meet, the authorities may eventually go for another increase in taxes for the corporate sector, Alfa-Bank warned. This year, the Ministry of Finance has already announced a one-time fee of 300 billion rubles from large businesses, changed the MET formula for oil (by another 600 billion rubles), and in addition intends to cancel multibillion-dollar subsidies to oil companies, with the help of which the authorities have stabilized gasoline prices since 2018 ( another 30 billion rubles a month).
'Readiness For Service': Russia's Schools Continue Marching Toward Militarization
As Moscow’s war against Ukraine rages on, children at schools across Russia can expect to see significant changes to the academic curriculum starting in September -- alterations with a militaristic bent.
At a discussion in the lower house of parliament late last month, State Duma Deputy Andrei Kartapolov lamented what he said was the unpreparedness of young volunteers and conscripts joining the Russian military.
“They are infantile youths,” said Kartapolov, a member of the Kremlin-controlled United Russia party who chairs the Duma Defense Committee, “who in many respects are not prepared for real life.”
The remedy?
Over the next two years, Russian schools will address this purported issue by scrapping its long-standing program called Fundamentals Of Safe Living and replacing it with a block of lectures with the working title Fundamentals Of Safety And Defense Of The Homeland.
It is the latest intensification of the thread of “patriotic education” that has run through Russia in Vladimir Putin’s more than two decades as president or prime minister -- and that many critics say prioritizes the goals of the government over the interests of children.
Read More:
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-schools-militarization-service-war-ukraine-putin/32500453.html
Season 3 of Kremlin File launches in mid-July. Don’t forget to subscribe to catch up on old episodes and for the latest news!
Swiss say dozens of Russian spies disguised as diplomats are active in the Alpine nation
Switzerland’s main intelligence agency says Russia continues to have dozens of spies disguised as diplomats at its embassy in Bern and its mission to the United Nations in Geneva, making the Alpine nation a hotspot for Russian espionage activity in Europe.
The NDB spy agency said in its annual report, published Monday, that while Russia’s intelligence activities in Europe and North America have been weakened by the expulsion of Russian agents posing as diplomats following the Skripal incident in 2018 and last year’s invasion of Ukraine, their number has remained stable in Switzerland.
“Of the roughly 220 people that are accredited as diplomatic or technical-administrative personnel at the diplomatic and consular representations in Geneva and Bern, at least a third are likely still active for Russian intelligence agencies,” it said in the report.
Read More:
Are Ukraine’s Spies Treading in Mossad’s Footsteps?
Whether Ukrainian intelligence agents assassinated Russian naval Captain of the Second Rank Stanislav Rzhitsky while he was out jogging on the morning of July 12, the story will certainly have ricocheted around the country’s military establishment.
Rzhitsky, 42, was shot four times while running near the Olympus Arena in Krasnodar, which is about 80 miles from the Black Sea naval base at Novorossiysk. He was reported to have formerly commanded the newly commissioned Kilo-class submarine Krasnodar, which carries the Kalibr cruise missiles used against numerous targets in Ukraine.
The vessel was reportedly behind a July 14, 2022 Kalibr attack on Vinnytsia, which resulted in the deaths of 27 Ukrainians including children. That resulted in Rzhitsky being added to an unofficial Ukrainian blacklist of those held responsible for war crimes.
“Today in Krasnodar, Stanislav Rzhitsky, deputy head of the department for mobilization work of the city administration, was shot in the back,” former mayor of the city Evgeny Pervyshov wrote on his Telegram channel. “I knew him as the commander of the Krasnodar submarine.”
Read More:
https://cepa.org/article/are-ukraines-spies-treading-in-mossads-footsteps/