Russia’s 2024 Playbook: Fueling US Election Chaos
As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, Russia is intensifying its disinformation operations to try to pave the way for Donald Trump's return to power. The Kremlin's strategy is simple yet sinister: undermine public confidence in the electoral system, especially after the polls close, to create fertile ground for doubt and potential violence if Trump loses. By spreading chaos and deepening divisions, Russia aims to erode trust in American democracy, breathing life into Trump's baseless lies of election fraud. The ultimate objective? Destabilize the U.S. and advance Russia's geopolitical interests by reinstating a loyal ally. So buckle up and stay vigilant…
Since Vice President Kamala Harris became the nominee, Russian interference has pivoted sharply toward her campaign. A recent Microsoft report revealed that Kremlin-aligned groups are unleashing a torrent of disinformation, including fake videos designed to tarnish Harris’s image. These videos, which have gone viral, misleadingly show Harris supporters attacking a Trump rally attendee and include fake reports about Harris’s alleged involvement in a 2011 hit-and-run accident in San Francisco, posted by a fake San Francisco news outlet, “KBSF-San Francisco News,” registered in Iceland this past August. Another fabricated video depicted a fake New York City billboard pushing false Harris policies, quickly spreading across platforms like X and Telegram.
Microsoft warned that Moscow is likely to ramp up its efforts through hacking and disinformation, employing AI-generated propaganda to amplify chaos. Moreover, Microsoft found that a China-linked group, Storm-1852, was also busy spreading disinformation about Harris and Biden, although many of its operatives have fallen silent after being exposed.
According to NPR, “U.S. officials, lawmakers, tech companies, and researchers have been concerned about the potential for AI-powered manipulation to upend this year’s election campaign, such as deepfake videos or audio depicting candidates doing or saying something they didn't or misleading voters about the voting process.”
Russia is also actively amplifying narratives that align with Trump's lies about election fraud—lies that first emerged in 2016, intensified during the 2020 election (culminating in an insurrection organized and incited by Trump and his allies), and are resurfacing with alarming fervor ahead of Election Day. With a tightly contested presidential race and potential chaos in Congress, Russia sees a huge opportunity to erode public trust in the electoral process, particularly by amplifying domestic disinformation about alleged voting irregularities and disseminating their conspiracies to stir uncertainty and chaos.
Meanwhile, a Russian politician who supports Trump wrote on his Telegram channel that, “Election passions are bringing the United States closer to the psychology of a civil war.” Aleksey Pushkov offers a glimpse into the disinformation Russia is likely to deploy adding that, “Kamala Harris’s supporters are characterized by political hatred towards their opponents.”
These disturbing statements are part of a broader disinformation operation that seeks to incite tensions within an already polarized America. By fostering the notion of violent intentions on one side, Russia who has been dreaming of a U.S. civil war, will spread disinformation and take actions that further polarize Americans and create volatile conditions.
Meanwhile, Russia has a lot of help from Trump with disinformation that has been a cornerstone of his political strategy—a tactic perfected by Soviet and Russian intelligence services, notably the KGB. Trump's penchant for lies and conspiracy theories has polarized Americans and cast doubt and distrust of democratic institutions. His lies of widespread voter fraud in 2020, alongside dubious narratives surrounding crime, immigration, and political opponents, have created a pervasive climate of confusion and distrust that mirrors Cold War-era KGB tactics designed to obscure truth and destabilize Western democracies.
Trump’s overarching aim is not merely to mislead but to cultivate an environment where truth becomes irrelevant, allowing power to be seized without accountability. By perpetually blurring the lines between reality and fabrication, Trump continues to erode the foundations of American democracy, weaponizing chaos in his bid to return to power.
Compounding these concerns are Trump’s secretive communications with Russia’s Vladimir Putin. Recent reports by Bob Woodward reveal that Trump has engaged in at least seven secret conversations with Putin since leaving office, raising alarms—especially given Trump's known admiration for authoritarians and contempt for traditional U.S. alliances. The contents of these conversations remain a mystery, but their mere existence is troubling, particularly against the backdrop of Russia’s brutal full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the upcoming election. When asked about any conversations he may have had with Putin since leaving office, Trump declined to provide a clear answer but did say that if the two spoke, it would be “a smart thing” for the United States. There is nothing smart about secretly speaking with a wanted war criminal.
Let’s not forget that during his presidency, Trump dismissed evidence of Russia’s election interference and praised Putin while undermining U.S. intelligence. His continued threats to withdraw from NATO are setting alarm bells off across Europe, and further bolstering Russia's hand. And let’s not forget Trump’s demand last year for Republicans to block military aid to Ukraine resulting in weapons shortages and dire conditions, another temporary win for Russia. Trump continues to side with Russia, downplaying their genocide in Ukraine and illegal full-scale invasion.
Election interference is an old playbook for Russia, but the use of AI has reached new heights in 2024. AI-generated content—including fake videos, doctored images, and inflammatory social media posts—has inundated social media platforms.
Another important thing to keep an eye on is Russia's efforts to spread disinformation about voting irregularities. They are amplifying lies pushed by Trump, various politicians, and influencers, and given Russia's track record, we can expect them to inject their conspiracies into the discourse. This disinformation operation is strategically targeting swing state voters, where narrow margins can ultimately determine the outcome of the election.
According to a recent FBI affidavit, a Russian operation called "The Good Old U.S.A. Project" focuses on spreading disinformation to voters in six key swing states. The main message promoted was that the U.S. should prioritize its domestic issues rather than "wasting money" on foreign nations like Ukraine. This same narrative aligns closely with disinformation that circulated recently, particularly regarding the hurricanes that wreaked havoc in Florida, North Carolina, and other states.
Russia has also increasingly employed the Doppelganger operation, first identified by EU DisinfoLab researchers in 2022. This operation disseminates disinformation through cloned websites, fabricated articles, and social media manipulation. In September, the US Department of Justice disrupted a portion of this operation, which now impersonates a wider array of credible entities, including government agencies and security organizations, in addition to traditional news outlets. So, if something feels off about a news article, be sure to verify its authenticity!
For the upcoming election, Russia’s disinformation strategy has been heavily leaning on the U.S. far-right to disseminate its narratives. Influential figures like Tucker Carlson have consistently echoed Kremlin propaganda, from spreading Kremlin disinformation of Russia’s full-scale assault on Ukraine to casting doubt on the legitimacy of U.S. elections. With their vast followings on platforms like X, these propagandists have become essential conduits for amplifying pro-Russian propaganda that fosters division and distrust.
A recent U.S. Department of Justice indictment disclosed the involvement of RT, Russia's state-controlled media outlet and an arm of the country's intelligence apparatus, in executing disinformation operations. It involved funneling nearly $10 million to a Tennessee-based content creation company to generate and distribute pro-Russian propaganda. The content was pushed through U.S. far-right influencers such as Tim Pool, Benny Johnson, and Dave Rubin, on platforms like TikTok, Instagram, X, podcasts, and YouTube, blending with homegrown disinformation. And the FBI affidavit referenced one document by a Russian organization (SDA), that contains a list of more than 2,800 people identified as influencers (with approximately 600 in the U.S.).
The situation has been further exacerbated by Elon Musk’s X platform, which amplifies disinformation to hundreds of millions of users, regardless of whether users follow these accounts. Since Musk's acquisition, the platform has been weaponized to promote content that aligns with far-right and pro-Russian narratives. This is compounded by Musk's support for Trump’s candidacy, his campaign efforts on Trump’s behalf, his investment of tens of millions of dollars into Trump’s campaign, and his promotion of conspiracies that benefit Trump while undermining Harris.
If you think that Russia's interference is limited to the United States, think again. The Kremlin is busy orchestrating a series of dangerous operations in Moldova ahead of Sunday’s presidential election and an EU referendum. In a press conference in Chișinău, police and prosecutors unveiled that Russia was recruiting and training a group of young Moldovans. They had received training, from instructors linked to the Wagner paramilitary group, in tactics for challenging law enforcement, using non-lethal weapons, creating incendiary devices, and operating drones equipped with explosives. In addition, customs officers in Chișinău recently intercepted €900,000 in undeclared cash smuggled in by over 100 Russians arriving from Russia via Armenia, allegedly intended to fund protests and buy votes ahead of the referendum. This unfolds as Russia has been ramping up its disinformation operations through organizations like the Social Design Agency (SDA).
For more information on SDA, Russia’s disinformation factories targeting Europe, and Moldova, read my article for CEPA.
This election is crucial for our democracy and the stability of the world. We’re at a pivotal moment where our choices could lead to a dangerous shift toward autocracy. If we don’t engage, we risk losing the democratic norms and freedoms we enjoy while abandoning our allies.
Every single vote matters. No one can afford to sit this one out—there's too much at stake for our future.