Russia’s War With the West
Yesterday, a DHL cargo plane, tragically crashed on approach to Vilnius, from DHL's hub at Leipzig Airport in Germany, killing one crew member and injuring several others. One report suggests that the aircraft was jammed by a Kaliningrad-based electronic warfare system during its final 34 minutes, affecting up to 20 other planes in the region at the time of the crash. Lithuanian officials are considering Russia’s potential involvement in the crash, given its suspected role in past sabotage operations, though no evidence has emerged so far. As Darius Jauniškis, Lithuania’s intelligence chief, stated, “Without a doubt, we cannot rule out the terrorism version.”
Earlier this month, European security officials launched an investigation into a suspected Russian plot to smuggle incendiary devices onto a cargo plane in Germany, potentially targeting North America-bound flights. The plot was uncovered when a device caught fire prematurely in July at a DHL cargo hub in Leipzig, Germany, prompting an international probe. Investigators later revealed that similar parcels, without the flammable contents, were sent to U.S. and Canadian addresses as potential test runs. Authorities linked the plot to alleged Russian operatives and in addition, four individuals were arrested in Poland in connection with that investigation.
This operation is part of a broader pattern of Russia deliberately targeting civilian air traffic as part of its hybrid warfare strategy, which has been expanding over the past decade. Initially concentrated and tested in Ukraine, Russia has progressively broadened its use of tactics such as cyberattacks, disinformation operations, assassinations, and targeted sabotage to undermine NATO countries and destabilize the West. The rising frequency of these attacks often carried out with plausible deniability, shows a coordinated effort by Russia’s GRU military intelligence agency. Unfortunately, it took awhile for Western nations to admit that these acts are not random but part of a coordinated strategy, as Russia is undeniably at war with the West.
Many continue to claim that Russia's attacks are a direct response to Western support for Ukraine but many of these operations began years before the current full-scale invasion and have escalated in recent years, reinforcing a long-standing strategy to undermine NATO and destabilize the West long before Russia's full-scale genocidal assault on Ukraine.
Russia’s GPS Jamming
Over the past year, Russia has escalated its use of electronic warfare, specifically GPS jamming, to disrupt civilian air traffic and sow instability. These operations, traced to Russian ground-based locations, have impacted flights in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, Sweden, Poland, and Germany, forcing diversions and reliance on less precise navigation methods.
In 2018, GPS jamming incidents were reported in the Nordic countries, particularly in Norway, where civilian flights had to rely on manual navigation due to signal disruption. By 2019, Russia had deployed the Murmansk-BN electronic warfare system in its Kaliningrad province, capable of jamming military communications across an 8,000-kilometer radius, and over the past year, it has increasingly used these jammers to disrupt civilian aircraft navigation.
Coordinated Sabotage and Disruption of Critical Infrastructure
In another sabotage operation carried out last week, two undersea internet cables in the Baltic Sea were unexpectedly disrupted, according to local telecommunications companies, raising concerns about potential Russian interference, yet again, with global undersea infrastructure. One cable connecting Lithuania and Sweden was cut, while another link between Finland and Germany was also affected. Lithuania’s intelligence chief, Darius Jauniškis, described these attacks as part of a broader “hybrid campaign” aimed at sowing chaos and panic.
Over the past decade, Russia has continued escalating its sabotage operations, targeting critical infrastructure across Europe. In April 2021, a telecommunications cable off the coast of Norway unexpectedly stopped functioning. Marine researchers investigating the issue discovered that the cable had been deliberately severed.
Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, there has been a surge in attacks on European infrastructure, including railways, pipelines, and telecommunications cables. While some attacks, such as a recent rail disruption in Germany, had mild immediate impacts, they are part of a larger pattern of sabotage, including damage to pipelines and explosives found near NATO's Central Europe Pipeline System.
Cyberattacks and Disinformation Campaigns Targeting the West
Russia's cyberattacks have also escalated significantly over the past decade, with several high-profile incidents targeting NATO military networks and critical civilian infrastructure. One of the most notable coordinated attacks occurred in 2020, when Russian hackers launched a cyberattack on the UK’s National Health Service (NHS), alongside U.S. and Canadian COVID-19 research institutions, during the pandemic. Around the same time, Russia launched a series of cyberattacks against hospitals in Europe and the U.S., causing widespread disruptions
Another significant attack occurred in December 2022, when APT28, a group part of Russia's military intelligence service (GRU), launched a cyberattack targeting Germany’s ruling Social Democrats, as well as companies in the logistics, defense, aerospace, and IT sectors. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock confirmed, "We can now clearly attribute the attack to the Russian group APT28, which is controlled by the Russian military intelligence service GRU." She added, "In other words, Russian state hackers have attacked Germany in cyberspace."
This is just a sample of the countless disruptive cyberattacks Russia has carried out against the West.
Covert Recruitment and Subversion via Telegram
Russia has also expanded its use of platforms like Telegram to recruit operatives for sabotage and subversion across Europe. A recent OCCRP investigation uncovered that Russian intelligence used a Telegram account, “Privet Bot,” to offer financial incentives to individuals for missions ranging from arson and espionage, to targeted assassinations. The decentralized nature of these operations, which relies on low-cost operatives, allows Russia to maintain plausible deniability while achieving high-impact results, even if some attacks fail. In some cases, operatives have been recruited to test attack strategies.
Similarly, Russia has been involved in training locals to destabilize their countries, as evidenced by a recent operation in Moldova, where guerrilla camps in Serbia and Bosnia were used to teach tactics like incendiary devices, explosives, drones, and protest strategies to local Moldovan activists. This underscores a critical area the West must monitor, as Russia perfects this tactic.
From Testing Ground to Global Threat
Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics have evolved over the past decade, with Ukraine serving as a testing ground for cyberattacks, election interference, disinformation operations, and sabotage operations against critical infrastructure.
In 2021, a cyberattack targeted a Florida water treatment facility in an attempt to poison the water supply, marking a dangerous escalation in cyber threats against civilian infrastructure in the U.S. While few details emerged from the investigation, the incident underscored vulnerabilities in critical systems.
Earlier this year, U.S. officials issued fresh warnings after Russian hackers exploited weak cybersecurity practices in water plants, taking advantage of outdated internet-connected equipment secured by basic passwords. Since January 2024, these hackers have disrupted operations by tampering with system settings and locking operators out of critical networks, though drinking water supplies remain unaffected.
Russia has long targeted energy infrastructure across Europe to disrupt systems and weaken regional energy security.
This pattern of aggression extends to increased drone incursions near sensitive military and infrastructure sites, in the UK and across Europe. I suspect Russia's involvement in the recent drone sightings over U.S. Air Force bases in the UK, including RAF Lakenheath, Mildenhall, and Feltwell.
In a similar vein, heightened security measures at Geilenkirchen NATO air base in August followed "serious indications" from foreign intelligence services of potential Russian sabotage, possibly involving drones. These incidents highlight a troubling pattern of drone activity at key locations across Europe, signaling the likelihood of continued surveillance and preparations for future attacks.
Interference in Domestic Affairs: Polarization, Political Financing, and Election Attacks
In addition to these direct forms of sabotage, Russia has actively sought to undermine democratic processes in Western nations through disinformation operations, covert political financing, and election interference, aiming to polarize societies and weaken support for democratic institutions. Russia has funded far-right parties in U.S. and Europe, including in France, Italy, and Hungary, boosting pro-Russian, anti-NATO candidates.
Russia’s interference in European, U.S., and Canadian elections over the past decade has involved hacking, fake news, and supporting extremist political groups to destabilize national unity. Through information warfare, including deepfakes, bot networks, and false narratives on social media, Russia has fueled economic unrest and eroded trust in government. In recent years, Russia has refocused efforts on weakening public resolve in supporting Ukraine, similar to tactics used after its 2014 invasion, illegal annexation of Crimea and occupation of Donbas. These efforts also target NATO, the EU, and North America, exploiting societal divisions on issues like immigration and nationalism to further polarize democracies. Ultimately, Russia seeks to overthrow democracy by sowing division and dismantling democratic institutions.
Russia’s War Against the West: The Escalating Threat
For over a decade, Russia has refined its hybrid warfare tactics, initially in Ukraine and then globally, targeting critical infrastructure, disrupting supply chains, and subverting Western democracies. Russia's attacks on military and civilian infrastructure continue to escalate, with cyberattacks, electronic warfare, and physical sabotage aimed at destabilizing Europe and the U.S., weakening democratic institutions, and spreading disruption.
The Kremlin’s disinformation operations further deepen divisions, undermining public trust and manipulating political narratives.
At what point do we recognize this as war? Russia sees it as such, and the West must confront the reality. The West may have won the Cold War, but for Russia, it was merely a temporary pause as they began plotting their next moves.
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