The Axis of Hostility: How Weak Accountability Fuels Global Sabotage
China Suspected of Sabotaging Taiwan’s Cables
In an escalation of hybrid warfare, China is suspected of cutting an international undersea telecom cable off the coast of Taiwan. This act, reminiscent of Russia's repeated sabotage operations, underscores a growing trend: adversarial regimes exploiting weaknesses in global accountability to challenge international norms and order.
Taiwan's recent incident further illustrates this point. Taiwanese authorities suspect that the Shunxin-39, a Cameroon-flagged cargo ship owned by a Chinese citizen, was involved in severing a $500 million undersea telecom cable. While the immediate impact on service was mitigated, the act signals a troubling escalation in gray-zone warfare. This follows a pattern seen in Europe, where Russia's shadow fleet has been implicated in severing undersea cables and damaging critical infrastructure like the recent Baltic Sea power lines between Finland and Estonia. Such actions, which have escalated in recent months, not only disrupt essential services but also test the West's readiness to respond to hybrid aggression.
Russia's Cable Sabotage
Russia has long used undersea cable sabotage as a tactic of hybrid warfare. Its shadow fleet has been implicated in severing undersea cables and damaging critical infrastructure across Europe, including the Baltic Sea power lines between Finland and Estonia. On Christmas Day, Finnish authorities uncovered evidence linking a Russia-affiliated vessel, Eagle S, to a severed undersea power cable between Finland and Estonia. Investigators found a 60-mile-long anchor drag mark on the seafloor, suggesting deliberate interference with the Balticconnector pipeline and Estlink-2 power cable.
The Eagle S, a 70,000-ton crude oil tanker registered in the Cook Islands, was seized by Finland after being identified as part of Russia's "shadow fleet," a network of vessels with murky ownership designed to evade Western sanctions. The ship had slowed down over the cables before the damage was discovered, and its crew is under investigation for aggravated criminal mischief and interference with communications.
Further investigations revealed that the Eagle S was equipped with special transmitting and receiving devices used to monitor naval activity—suggesting a deliberate effort to gather intelligence while conducting acts of sabotage. Finnish authorities have detained the vessel as part of their ongoing investigation.
This incident comes on the heels of several other acts of sabotage, including multiple instances of fiber-optic cables being severed in November 2024. These operations, conducted under the guise of plausible deniability, represent a broader Russian strategy of hybrid warfare designed to disrupt essential services, spread fear, and test Western resolve. Russia’s cable attacks are only one component of its destabilization campaign, which also includes invasions, cyberattacks, arson, and sabotage operations on critical infrastructure across Europe.
Past Lessons Fuel Ongoing Escalation: Authoritarian Regimes Watch and Plot
Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 and faced no significant consequences. It invaded Ukraine in 2014, receiving only a mild slap on the wrist. Since then, Moscow has come to understand that it can escalate its actions with minimal accountability. Now, China is testing the international response as it ramps up its own aggression, knowing it can push boundaries without facing serious repercussions.
This trend is particularly evident in Ukraine, where Russia has carried out egregious acts of genocide, sabotage and terror. In addition to its military aggression, China and Iran have provided weapons to support Russia’s genocidal war while North Korea has gone further by supplying arms and even sending troops to fight alongside Russian forces in Ukraine. These alliances of convenience among authoritarian regimes highlight their readiness to collaborate when it serves their strategic interests, despite underlying distrust.
The lack of accountability for Russia’s actions for almost two decades has emboldened its allies and set a dangerous precedent.
The Growing Threat of Authoritarian Regimes
Authoritarian regimes like China, Iran, Venezuela, and North Korea take note of this inaction and escalate their own activities. For example, Venezuela's regime is hunting and detaining hostages to pressure its rivals, further demonstrating its disregard for international norms and its strategic alignment with other authoritarian states. Recently, Maduro's regime intensified these tactics by seizing 50 foreigners, including several American passport holders, to use as leverage against global powers, signaling a dangerous escalation.
Meanwhile, Iran continues to flout international norms with ballistic missile tests and nuclear advancements, while also continuing to supply Russia in its war in Ukraine while funding and providing logistical support for terrorist organizations. These coordinated acts of defiance challenge global stability and highlight the urgent need for stronger alliances and more decisive action to counter authoritarian aggression.
Uniting Against the Axis of Authoritarianism
For Republicans in the United States who may view China as the primary threat while favoring a softer stance on Russia, it is crucial to recognize that these adversaries are not mutually exclusive. Though Russia and China may harbor mutual distrust, they have repeatedly demonstrated a willingness to collaborate when it serves their shared strategic goals. This cooperation is evident in their joint challenges to global norms and the international order. Failing to address the actions of one regime only serves to embolden the other, allowing both to act with greater impunity.
The international community must recognize that appeasing one authoritarian power will only pave the way for further destabilization. The consequences of inaction are not just theoretical; they are unfolding in real-time across Ukraine, being tested in Taiwan, and other vulnerable regions, setting a dangerous precedent for global stability.
Preserving Global Order: What Must Be Done
NATO's response in the Baltic Sea, including enhanced naval patrols, is a step in the right direction, but more robust action is needed. Sanctions against Russia's shadow fleet and coordinated efforts to protect critical infrastructure are a step in the right direction. This is not merely about safeguarding undersea cables or power lines; it is about ensuring global security.
In Ukraine, the stakes are clear. The global response to Russia’s aggression will set the tone for how other regimes perceive and exploit weaknesses. The alliance of authoritarian states, from China to Venezuela, thrives on the absence of accountability. The international community must act decisively to counter this growing axis of hostility and reinforce the principles of sovereignty, democracy, and the rule of law.