For the third day in a row, NATO continued its unannounced operations along the eastern flank, with the military again operating around Kaliningrad, Poland, the Baltic states, and stretching to Moldova.
And as NATO continued its show of force to warn Russia against attacking a NATO country, Moscow was yet again escalating.
Romania, a NATO country, had already dealt with a drone entering its airspace during Russia’s massive and deadly overnight attack on Ukraine when another one appeared just hours later. This time it was a maritime drone in the Black Sea, spotted just a few hundred meters from the Neptun Deep gas project. Romania scrambled two F-16s, and video captured the moment one of the jets opened fire and hit the drone, which officials later confirmed was carrying explosives.
The location is important because Neptun Deep is one of Europe’s largest new natural gas projects and is expected to make Romania the EU’s largest gas producer when it comes online. And this is not the first time Romania has dealt with a drone incursion this week. Just four days ago, another drone entered its airspace and was shot down by a Spanish F-18 conducting a NATO air policing mission.
Romanian President Nicușor Dan took to X to thank the Romanian Armed Forces and pilots for destroying the drone and blamed Russia for the incident. He condemned what he called an “intensification” of these incidents by Russia and said Romania would remain vigilant alongside its NATO allies to “repel such challenges.”
If any of this sounds familiar, it should. Just a few weeks ago, a drone carrying Semtex and other explosives was discovered near Ukrainian cargo aircraft at Germany’s Leipzig/Halle Airport, which U.S. intelligence attributed to Russia.
And Romania was not the only country dealing with an incident today. Finland announced it was investigating a suspected violation of its airspace by a Russian aircraft, the latest in a series of suspected Russian incursions this year.
This is all happening against the backdrop of the growing number of U.S. and European intelligence warnings that Russia could launch an attack against a NATO country.
Meanwhile, just look at all the recent incidents. On July 30, a Russian Kh-101 cruise missile crashed in Poland. Days later, an explosive drone carrying Semtex and PETN was discovered at Germany’s Leipzig/Halle Airport, which U.S. intelligence attributed to Russia. Romania has had repeated drone incursions, including three Russian drones shot down in July, another drone shot down by a Spanish F-18 on August 16, and two more incidents today, including the drone carrying an explosive near the Neptun Deep gas project. Three days ago, what is suspected to be a Russian Banderol missile entered Moldova and exploded in a field. And earlier today, Finland reported another suspected Russian aircraft violating its airspace.
And this is just in three weeks. If this isn’t war, I’m not sure what is. For over a decade, Russia has been in a shadow war with Europe, carrying out arson attacks, sabotage operations, attacks on critical infrastructure, assassinations, cyberattacks, explosions at ammunition depots, and even multiple plots to kill European defense executives. Because Moscow feels more emboldened, it has continued to escalate. Watching NATO’s show of force over the past three days tells me Europe is finally taking the threat seriously and preparing for the possibility that Russia could go even further and test Article 5.
Anyways, I wanted to give a quick update on the latest developments. It has been a very busy 72 hours. I’ll keep monitoring and update when something new happens.
NATO’s Message to Russia Is Getting Louder
Yesterday, I wrote about the unusual NATO activity along Europe’s eastern flank. In an unannounced operation, U.S. F-35s, surveillance aircraft, aerial refueling tankers, and the U.S. Air Force’s new EA-37B Compass Call electronic warfare aircraft were all spotted in a show of force around Kaliningrad, Poland, and the Baltic states. As with many important things, this received no Western media coverage, though Russian media was quick to report on it.
Why Was NATO So Active Around Kaliningrad Today?
For several weeks, U.S. and European officials have been sounding the alarm over intelligence that Russia could be preparing to test Article 5 with a military attack against a NATO country, possibly even a ground incursion from Belarus or Kaliningrad. These warnings have me particularly worried about the Suwałki Corridor, which I have been warning about for years. The narrow stretch of NATO territory between Belarus and Kaliningrad connects Poland to Lithuania and the Baltic states and has long been considered one of NATO’s most vulnerable points.
Something Is Setting Off Alarm Bells Across NATO
Within hours yesterday, Lithuania and the U.S. put out warnings that Russia may be preparing to test NATO with a limited attack on one of its members. Lithuania’s Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas said they had intelligence that Russia could carry out attacks against critical infrastructure in the Baltic region and could use Ukrainian-made drones for these attacks. “We are talking about a potential false-flag operation where a fake Ukrainian drone could be used,” he warned. “That’s the most realistic current scenario.”
Thank you Olga. This is very important and not enough people know about it.
Thank you, Olga for this (un-nerving) report and for your diligence.