Over the past few months, European governments and intelligence agencies have issued multiple warnings that Russia could be preparing to escalate its attacks against NATO. Countries, especially on the Eastern flank, are strengthening their defenses, protecting critical infrastructure, preparing evacuation plans, and Germany is even getting hospitals ready for the possibility of war. Meanwhile, Russia seems to be laying the groundwork for a false flag or maybe just returning to its fear-mongering playbook. Either way, it’s important to document.
Earlier today, news came out that Moscow sent NATO a warning that it could use nuclear weapons if the alliance attempts to isolate Kaliningrad, but Russia’s predictable nuclear threat is not what caught my attention. Russia threatening everyone with nukes is hardly new, but what did stand out was why Moscow issued the threat.
Russia issued the warning via a diplomatic note sent to NATO and was very specific about what would trigger a response. “Russia will be ready to use the entire arsenal of forces and capabilities at its disposal, including nuclear weapons, in order to defend its territory should NATO countries undertake any attempt aimed at isolating the Kaliningrad Region from the rest of the country,” the note said.
Russia also warned of possible “strikes against decision-making centers in the alliance’s member states right from the outset.”
What makes Russia’s latest propaganda concerning is that Moscow has been building this blockade narrative for months. Back in February, Nikolai Patrushev, Putin’s longtime confidant and former FSB chief who helped orchestrate the deadly 1999 apartment building bombings to get Putin into power, warned that NATO could blockade Kaliningrad and said Russia was prepared to use its navy to break it.
Then came NATO’s Gallant Boar exercise in June, which focused on defending the Suwałki Corridor. Russian media claimed it was actually preparation for an “invasion” and “blockade” of Kaliningrad. By September, Moscow was getting much more specific. On September 16, Russia’s state media outlet TASS reported that Yulia Zhdanova, head of the Russian delegation to the Vienna Negotiations on Military Security and Arms Control, claimed NATO was already “testing specific scenarios for blockading the Kaliningrad Region” and isolating Russian ports, including St. Petersburg. There was still no NATO plan to blockade Kaliningrad, but Russia was insisting one was in the works.
Which brings us to this week, where Russia has pushed its propaganda into overdrive. In a concerted effort, Russian embassies across Europe began repeating the same blockade narrative and warning what would happen if NATO tried it. Again, NATO has announced no plan to blockade Kaliningrad. The embassy in Britain warned that anyone advocating a blockade or strike should have “no illusions about the consequences,” while the embassies in Belgium and Ireland pushed similar lies about NATO escalating around Kaliningrad and preparing this so-called blockade.
NATO’s response was pretty straightforward. Secretary General Mark Rutte reminded Moscow that NATO is a defensive alliance and told Russia to “stop the nuclear threats.” In its written response, NATO also said that none of its exercises or activities pose a threat to Russian territory.
So why all this noise around Kaliningrad? The territory sits between Poland and Lithuania and is one of Russia’s most heavily militarized outposts in Europe, home to the Baltic Fleet, Russian troops, and nuclear-capable weapons. Russia has also used the exclave for GPS jamming and spoofing across the Baltic region. And just next door is the Suwałki Corridor, which NATO has spent years preparing to defend because a Russian move there could cut the Baltic states off from the rest of the alliance.
More importantly, why is Moscow working so hard to convince everyone that NATO is preparing to blockade Kaliningrad? It could simply be another fear-mongering campaign to scare Europeans with the threat of a direct war with Russia and weaken support for Ukraine. But given the warnings coming from European intelligence agencies about possible Russian false flags, there is another possibility we should at least take into account. Russia has a long history of creating a threat, blaming its adversaries for it, and then using that threat to justify its actions.
We watched Russia use this playbook in Ukraine—twice. Before its 2014 invasion, and then again in 2022. For months, Russia pushed disinformation about NATO threatening Russia while accusing Ukraine of committing “genocide” against Russian speakers. By February, U.S. intelligence was publicly warning that Moscow could manufacture an attack, blame Ukraine, and use it as a pretext for a full-scale invasion. Russia denied it right up until the missiles started falling.
On the day of the full-scale invasion, Russia flooded the information space with “Nazi” disinformation, with references to Nazism reaching unprecedented levels.
And Ukraine is definitely not the only example. I documented versions of this playbook in Syria, Moldova, Georgia, and beyond, where Russia pushed the story of an impending attack or threat before an invasion, military escalation, or false flag operation.
Months ago, I warned that if Russia decides to attack NATO, it likely wouldn’t begin with a direct attack. Moscow would need a pretext, and Russia is more than capable of manufacturing an attack on its own territory, playing the victim, and claiming it was forced to respond. This is their decades-long playbook. Now Moscow is building a story that NATO is preparing to blockade Russian territory, while European intelligence agencies are warning about possible false flags and military incursions. We don’t know what comes next, but we may be watching Russia write the narrative and prime the information space.
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Their intensification of fear is likely because the window of Trumportunity may be closing. Also, maximal chaos going into our elections only adds to the coming high chaos environment Trump is deploying as well. The evidence is all there to unmask Trump as traitor.
If this doesn’t happen in time, his odds of burying our democracy are pretty good.
Poland 1939 😎