What is Russia Planning Next in Moldova?
Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service Publishes an Ominous Statement, Indicating Russia May Be Preparing a False Flag Attack
After Unsuccessful Election Attacks, Russia’s Potential Next Moves Unfold
Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics in Moldova have continually evolved, targeting the pro-Western government of President Maia Sandu. Following failed attempts to influence Moldova’s fall elections, the Kremlin, once again, appears to be intensifying efforts to undermine the country’s sovereignty. A recent SVR (Foreign Intelligence Service) statement accusing Moldova of plotting “aggressive actions against Transnistria” signals Moscow’s familiar strategy of using disinformation to set the stage for potential provocations on Russian-occupied territory in Moldova. The Kremlin continues to look for ways to create divisions between Moldova, Ukraine, and the EU, aiming to fracture their unity—while Russia seeks to advance its geopolitical and imperialist ambitions.
After Russia’s genocidal full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin escalated rhetoric by labeling President Sandu a “Nazi,” echoing the propaganda used to justify its genocidal war on Ukraine. This rhetoric, first used in 2022, was followed by a series of terrorist attacks inside Transnistria, which Moscow blamed on the Sandu government and Romania. With the recent SVR statement accusing Moldova of ‘plotting’ aggressive actions against Transnistria, Russia seems to be, yet again, laying the groundwork for further destabilization.
The SVR Statement: A Signal of Future Plans
The recent statement published by the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), claiming that “the headquarters of the European Union do not know how to calm down the emotionally unstable President of Moldova M. Sandu,” highlights the Kremlin’s ongoing maneuvers. According to the SVR, European Union officials are “reportedly frustrated by President Maia Sandu’s reaction to Moldova’s energy security concerns.” The statement accuses Sandu of planning “aggressive actions against Transnistria,” including a potential military operation to seize control of the Moldavian State District Power Plant and remove Russian “peacekeeping” (occupation) forces. While this narrative fits Russia’s propaganda playbook, it may also serve as a pretext for "false flag attacks," a tactic Russia has employed numerous times before.
Given Russia’s history of orchestrating false flag operations in Ukraine, Moldova, and other regions, the potential for such an operation in Moldova is a serious concern.
Russia’s Use of Occupied Territories
Russia has long used occupied Transnistria as a staging ground for operations in Moldova, including false flag attacks. The continued presence of Russian forces in Transnistria undermines Moldova’s sovereignty and serves as a destabilizing factor in the region. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2014, it has employed similar tactics, utilizing illegally annexed Crimea and occupied Donbas to conduct attacks and operations aimed at destabilizing Ukraine and overthrowing its democratic government.
This underscores the long overdue need to remove Russian forces from all occupied territories in Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia to ensure regional stability and protect democratic institutions. Negotiations should not be used as an excuse for Russia’s continued occupation and aggression.
The October 2024 Elections: A Failed Russian Gambit
In the lead-up to Moldova’s October 2024 elections, Russia employed a wide range of tactics to influence the outcome, including disinformation operations, cyberattacks, and financial subversion aimed at undermining President Maia Sandu’s pro-European government. Moscow invested heavily, with a reported $55 million operation during the October referendum and first round of elections, as well as a $30 million vote-buying scheme in the Gagauzia region. Pro-Russian media outlets and social media channels amplified divisive narratives to polarize the electorate and weaken Moldova's pro-European sentiment.
Moldovan authorities uncovered numerous schemes, including the distribution of illegal campaign materials and the use of Russian banking systems to funnel cash for vote-buying operations. Despite these efforts, President Sandu won re-election in November—securing Moldova’s path towards the EU.
In Romania, a NATO member, the annulment of the first round of presidential elections in November exposed Kremlin interference. Russian networks on TikTok and Telegram amplified far-right candidate Calin Georgescu, flooding social media with anti-NATO propaganda and pro-Moscow narratives. The scale and sophistication of these operations were alarming, demonstrating Moscow’s ability to manipulate public opinion. Romania’s decisive action to annul the election and declassify intelligence about the interference sent a clear message: they will not tolerate Russian meddling in their democratic processes.
Meanwhile, in Georgia, Moscow continued its support for the ruling pro-Kremlin Georgian Dream party, which rigged elections and suppressed opposition voices.
In the United States, Russia's disinformation operations during the 2024 presidential election were aggressive, with Kremlin-backed operatives flooding social media platforms like X and TikTok with fabricated content, including Russian-manufactured fake AI-generated videos and false claims of election fraud. On Election Day, bomb threats traced back to Russia were made to polling stations in key battleground states, disrupting voting and further attempting to undermine trust in the election process—hallmarks of Russia's hybrid warfare strategy.
Training and Subversion: A Broader Pattern
Russia’s destabilization tactics extend beyond electoral interference. Recent revelations indicate that Russia’s Wagner Group recruited Moldovans for training at guerrilla camps in Serbia and Bosnia, where they learned to use incendiary devices, drones, and protest strategies. This emerging tactic is one that other Western countries must monitor closely, as Russia may expand these operations to destabilize additional nations and exploit vulnerabilities in their political systems. This came after last year’s revelations of Russia organizing a violent coup plot against Sandu’s government, further underscoring the Kremlin’s willingness to escalate its operations.
Disinformation and Propaganda
Russian disinformation campaigns have portrayed President Sandu as a Western puppet, aiming to erode public trust in her administration. These narratives echo similar efforts in 2014 Ukraine, where the Kremlin’s propaganda laid the groundwork for its 2022 full-scale invasion.
In Moldova, pro-Russian media outlets and social media channels have amplified these messages, seeking to polarize society and weaken pro-European sentiment.
For over a decade, these same tactics have also been deployed in the United States, where Russia continues to deepen divisions, spread disinformation, and undermine trust in democratic institutions. This further highlights the global scope of Moscow's hybrid warfare strategy.
Regional Implications and the Path Forward
Moldova’s struggle against Russian hybrid warfare is emblematic of a broader trend across Europe. From Georgia to Ukraine, the Kremlin has used these countries as testing grounds for its asymmetric tactics. The lessons learned from these operations are now being exported to destabilize democracies across Europe and the U.S.
Anyone who believes Russia will stop at Ukraine is profoundly misguided or willingly echoing Kremlin propaganda. The push for Ukraine to give up territories and negotiate with a terrorist state that relentlessly and strategically targets civilians, carries out daily missile and drone strikes across all of Ukraine, and uses occupied territories as launchpads for attacks and destabilization operations to subvert Ukraine’s democracy, is ludicrous. This is in addition to the genocide, war crimes, and crimes of aggression committed on occupied territories in Ukraine.
As I have previously warned, if Ukraine falls, Moldova, the Baltics, and other European countries will be at grave risk of Russian invasion. Moscow will be emboldened, further destabilizing the region and threatening all of European stability.
Conclusion
As Moldova navigates its path toward European integration, the persistent shadow of Russian interference remains a significant challenge that must be addressed. The resilience of its people and the determination of its leadership have thus far thwarted the Kremlin’s ambitions. No matter how much Russia tries to divide, it is crucial that Europe stays united, especially now that the US will no longer be a reliable partner in this fight.
For Further Reading
Russia’s Remorseless Moldova Campaign Nears a Crescendo
https://cepa.org/article/russias-remorseless-moldova-campaign-nears-a-crescendo/
Thank you. I read somewhere that a missile hit Ukraine that was fired from Moldova; now I have some understanding of why